Ecuador's power struggle

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

Correa's radical plans spark battle in Ecuador

Duroyan Fertl, 16 March 2007
Green Left Weekly
The small Andean nation of Ecuador is facing a political crisis as the Congress and the courts turn on each other over new president Rafael Correa’s plans for a Constituent Assembly and a “citizens’ revolution” to build “21st century socialism” in the poverty-stricken country.
Correa, a self-described socialist and close ally of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, was elected late last year promising to redirect Ecuador’s oil wealth into social spending, increase popular democracy and limit the power of the traditional political parties. Central to this platform is convoking a popular Constituent Assembly to rewrite Ecuador’s constitution.
In February the 100-member Congress, which is controlled by parties hostile to Correa and his policies, passed a bill allowing a referendum on the assembly after the opposition Patriotic Society Party (PSP) of former president Lucio Gutierrez voted in favour. However there was an immediate dispute over the power that the assembly will have, Correa arguing for a plenary power enabling it to dismiss not only the Congress and courts, but also the president.
While the Congress disagreed, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) endorsed Correa’s statements and announced on March 1 that the referendum would be held on April 15. In response, a majority of Congress, including the PSP, voted to sack the president of the TSE. The court immediately fired back, sacking the 57 members of Congress responsible and setting up a police cordon to prevent the sacked members from entering.
The Constitutional Tribunal has refused to rule on an appeal by the fired lawmakers until Congress endorses it. Congress, however, is unable to convene, as it can’t achieve the required quorum of 51 legislators.
On March 13, 20 legislators broke through police lines and entered the Congress before being removed by riot police using tear gas. Correa blamed the ousted members of Congress for the violence, saying, “These people want to create chaos because they know they’re already out”.
The ousted legislators, made up of members of parties with close ties to Ecuador’s financial oligarchy, have threatened to set up a rival congress in Guayaquil, the country’s second major city and base of the right-wing Social Christian Party.
The Constitutional Tribunal has also warned Correa to obey its forthcoming ruling on the validity of the referendum, but Correa disputes the court’s power to rule on the matter, and has threatened to call mass protests to ensure that the assembly goes ahead.
Humberto Cholango from ECUARUNARI, one of the organisations representing Ecuador’s approximately 40% indigenous population, has also called for a massive mobilisation of all the indigenous and social movements of the country to defend the assembly.
If the referendum is successful, it will allow the election of 130 people who will have four months to rewrite the constitution. A recent poll shows that only 17% of Ecuadorians are satisfied with the Congress, which is regarded as corrupt, while over 75% support the Constituent Assembly.

Ecuadorean Opposition Plans Parallel Congress After Shooting

By Alex Kennedy and Bill Faries

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's suspended lawmakers, in a challenge to President Rafael Correa, plan to hold a parallel session outside Quito after police blocked their entry to the capitol and two supporters were wounded in a drive-by shooting.

Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo said opposition leaders now have backing from more than two-thirds of the 100-member congress to meet as an alternative assembly next week. Riot police used tear gas yesterday to stop the lawmakers from reaching their offices after the electoral court suspended the ``political rights'' of 57 opposition members last week.

``We're seeing a regime that's an authentic dictatorship,'' former President Lucio Gutierrez, a leader of the opposition Patriotic Society party, said in a telephone interview from Quito. ``Violence has been rising in a dangerous way, and it could at some point turn into a civil war in Ecuador.''

The shooting, which occurred outside the Marriott Hotel, where the lawmakers retreated, deepens a clash over Correa's plans to remake the country along what he calls socialist economic and political lines. Correa's proposal for a new constitution -- the trigger for the current showdown -- echoes steps taken by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales to consolidate their control over the congress, courts and election authorities.

``They abused their power, they thought they were immune,'' Correa said in comments broadcast on the Cablenoticias television station after the legislators were shut out of their offices. ``Now they're getting a taste of their own medicine,'' he said.

`Quiet For Now'

Ecuador's congress voted March 6 to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan for a national referendum on re-writing the constitution. The next day, the court suspended the lawmakers who sought to remove the judge, ruling their votes violated the constitution. Correa supported the court's decision and said the lawmakers would be replaced.

The top constitutional court yesterday rejected a request by the president of congress to rule on the legality of the suspension.

``With this situation, Correa's ability to govern will be reduced,'' said Claudio Loser, former director of Western Hemisphere affairs at the International Monetary Fund and a political analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

The U.S. Ambassador in Ecuador, Linda Jewell, said on Cablenoticias that the conflict among Correa, the congress and the courts is a domestic situation.

``We're going to be quiet for now,'' she said.

Correa, 43, a U.S.-trained economist who served a five- month stint as finance minister in 2005, won 57 percent of votes in a Nov. 26 run-off election in which he ran without the formal backing of any political party.

`Government Crisis'

During and after the campaign, Correa aligned himself with Chavez's socialist vision, vowing to boost spending on the poor, renegotiate foreign oil contracts and review Ecuador's approximately $10 billion in foreign debt obligations. Venezuela on Feb. 22 offered Ecuador as much as $500 million of ``financial cooperation.''

Correa took office in January as Ecuador's eighth president in about a decade. On Jan. 30, about 5,000 of his supporters tried to storm congress to demand lawmakers approve plans for a referendum on the constitution.

``Correa is forcing a government crisis,'' Loser said. ``This is going to get investors even more nervous.''

Ecuador has twice backed away from threats to default on debt payments since Correa took power. Finance Minister Ricardo Patino said March 8 that the country wouldn't ignore foreign debt obligations.

``Our creditors should know that we're very responsible,'' Patino said.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez said in an interview that the shots were fired from a passing motorcycle carrying two people. One of the opposition lawmakers' supporters outside the hotel was hit in the back, the other in the leg.

Ecuador: Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?

Stratfor, March 13, 2007

Summary

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide whether to reinstate 57 legislators dismissed March 7 by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This leaves the country with an unresolved crisis regarding legitimate authority -- a situation in which the military could intervene.

Analysis

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide on the reinstatement of 57 legislators dismissed six days earlier by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The constitutional court realized that without President Rafael Correa's support, its decision would not matter except as a possible trigger for massive protests. The court announced that the motion filed lacked the required signatures from a congressional majority, but that it could be considered if it is refiled with the signatures.

If the Constitutional Tribunal had ruled on reinstating the 57 legislators, the result could have been chaos on the streets. There would be large demonstrations, led in part by the indigenous groups of the highlands, echoing Correa's demand that the ruling be ignored. Traditionally, at such inflection points in Ecuadorian politics, the military steps in. Since those demonstrations did not materialize, however, the military is waiting to see whether the ongoing crisis reaches a boiling point.

The situation began March 7, when Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal fired 57 of the 100 members of the country's unicameral Congress, based on allegations of interfering with a constitutional referendum after those 57 attempted to dismiss a majority of the tribunal's members. Correa announced March 8 that if the constitutional court were to reinstate the legislators, he would consider the ruling invalid and call for a popular uprising against the decision. In other words, Correa is de facto dismissing the judicial and legislative branches of Ecuador's government and making himself the sole authority. Strengthened by widespread public support (though it dropped from the 70 percent range in January to around 65 percent in early March, according to polling firm Cedatos/Gallup), Correa has decided to descend the slippery slope from populist to authoritarian.

Ecuador has seen its share of coups, with the military sometimes supporting the sitting president and sometimes overthrowing him, but usually acting decisively either way "for the good of the country." This case is a tricky one for the military, however. Correa is clearly dismantling the government's checks and balances and alienating the country's commercial class. On the other hand, he is very popular. It is not clear whether the military could control the public backlash that would occur if it tried to overthrow Correa, and it probably does not have the stomach to try at this point.

The military appears to have a cordial relationship with Correa thus far -- Correa has even approved military pay raises -- and is not likely to rock the boat. However, if the opposition is able to gather strength, the military will have to make tough decisions.

Many of the deposed congressmen gathered March 13 at a Marriott hotel in Ecuador. Several supported an announcement by Gloria Gallardo, a dismissed legislator from the opposition Institutional Renewal Party of National Action, who said that democracy in Ecuador is dead and Correa has become a dictator. Furthermore, Pedro Almeida of the Patriotic Society Party called for an extraordinary Congress to meet in Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil, located in the west coast lowlands where the opposition movement is based. If opposition political parties and businessmen can create a well-organized grassroots movement to support the deposed legislators' reinstatement, popular unrest could become significant.

Any such organized opposition would shrink Correa's window of opportunity for attempting to restore a semblance of legitimacy to his decisions by getting Congress to function again. Correa would do this by replacing some of the dismissed congressmen with preselected alternates loyal to him. Even if Correa's popularity holds above the 60 percent mark -- which is likely -- the country is now dangerously divided by competing claims to legitimate authority. Leading up to Ecuador's April 15 referendum on the formation of a constitutional assembly, the military could face increasing pressure to intervene before, after, or during the outbreak of violent demonstrations regarding the dismissed legislators.

The least stable -- and almost certainly bloody -- outcome would be an attempt to oust Correa. The most stable outcome, and still the most likely, is that Correa will keep the military's support, suppress the opposition, continue his constitutional reform, and eventually restore a veneer of respectability to the other branches of government by repopulating Congress with his supporters and committing to honor all court decisions under the new constitution. Such a turn of events might help preserve domestic tranquility, but it would also push Correa further toward becoming an imitation of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Ecuador Court Rules Deputies Stay Out

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) In a surprise decision Tuesday, Ecuador s Constitutional Court refused to hear the petition for reinstatement by 57 deputies dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE).

The request, presented by Congress leader Jorge Cevallos, enraged the right-wing legislators who had been dismissed by the TSE for attempting to obstruct the referendum on the Constituent Assembly.

According to judicial sources, the Assessment and Receipt Committee determined that, under the Constitution, Cevallos claim failed to fulfil the requisite of support by the majority in Congress.

Just before the decision, a group of dismissed legislators from PRIAN (Institutional Renovator) and Patriotic Society confronted the police and violently entered the congressional building, but Cevallos determined there was not a quorum and suspended today s session.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people have gathered outside the Legislature to guard it and demand expulsion of the dismissed legislators.

President of La Sierra Indigenous Nationalities Confederation, Humberto Cholango, warned that "if the dismissed deputies attempt to return to their seats, this movement and all the people will rise up," because the people are determined to have a Constituent Assembly, he concluded.

Ecuador's Congress fires election court chief

QUITO, March 6 (Reuters) - Ecuador's opposition-dominated Congress fired the head of the election court on Tuesday, which could delay President Rafael Correa's referendum in April aimed at cutting the influence of traditional political parties.

The move by Congress was sure to fuel tension between left-winger Correa and lawmakers trying to secure an opposition majority in the seven-member election court as they question the legality of the referendum, experts said.

Correa, a political outsider elected in November, plans to hold a public vote on April 15 on whether to call a special assembly to rewrite the constitution.

He says the overhaul is needed to curb political parties that many Ecuadoreans blame for instability in South America's No. 5 oil producer.

Opposition lawmakers fear Correa will use the assembly to weaken the legislature and bolster presidential powers, as his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez did after his election.

"This was a political move to further delay the referendum and therefor weaken the government's popularity," said Simon Pachano, an analyst with the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences.

"But this could turn into another scandal because the legality of the vote is not yet clear."

The dismissed Electoral Court president, Jorge Acosta, could try to challenge the ruling to remove him without an impeachment, analysts said.

After weeks of street protests by Correa supporters demanding a referendum, lawmakers in February approved the president's initial proposal.

But opposition lawmakers now say Correa made changes to the referendum text without their approval before handing it to election officials. They say the changed version grants the proposed assembly the power to dissolve Congress and they want the Constitutional Court to declare the referendum invalid.

Fifty-two of the 73 lawmakers at Tuesday's session voted to remove Acosta on the grounds he failed to fulfill his Patriotic Society party's political mandate. Court members are picked by the seven political parties with the most votes.

Acosta, a lawyer close to toppled president Lucio Gutierrez, was one of four court members who voted to approve the referendum last week. Congress said his replacement must be named by Gutierrez's party.

Congress seeks to block Correa referendum

The Peninsular On-line, 3-4-07.

QUITO • Ecuador’s Congress voted on Friday to ask a top court to declare invalid President Rafael Correa’s proposal for a referendum on constitutional reforms.

The decision is likely to strain ties between lawmakers and Correa, a leftist elected in November after he promised to curb the influence of traditional parties whom many blame for instability and poverty in South America’s No. 5 oil producer.

After weeks of haggling, lawmakers in February agreed to Correa’s proposal for an April 15 vote to decide whether to call a special assembly to rewrite the constitution. They agreed after seeking limits on the powers of the assembly.

But lawmakers on Friday said Correa had since introduced a rewritten version of the guidelines for the referendum giving the proposed assembly broader powers, without first consulting the congress on the revisions.

The electoral court this week confirmed April 15 for the referendum, but lawmakers say they now want the constitutional court to declare it invalid because of unauthorized rewrites.

“They have betrayed constitutional principles by taking the step of convoking it in an unconstitutional way,” said Luis Almeida, a lawmaker with the Patriotic Society Party, or PSP, the second largest.

Correa, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, says he wants to overhaul the political system and rewrite the constitution to reduce the influence of corrupt elites on key institutions such as the courts.

But his critics fear Correa will use a popular assembly to bypass the congress and secure broader presidential powers as Chavez did in Venezuela by eliminating limits on immediate re-election and extending the presidential term in office from five to six years.

Correa is popular and many Ecuadoreans are fed up with their traditional political class, but his political movement has no representatives in the congress. Correa’s supporters in January stormed the congress to demand lawmakers accept the president’s proposal for a referendum.

Ecuador Set to Hold Popular Referendum

Quito, Mar 1 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador s TSE (Election Supreme Court) decided on Thursday to hold a popular plebiscite on April 15 for the establishment of a National Constituent Assembly with full powers.

TSE President Jorge Acosta pointed out that people would be called on radio and television tonight to participate in the referendum, adding that the TSE is responding to a demand from the Ecuadorian people.

The decision to call a referendum was made after the Economy Ministry transferred 16 million dollars for expenses, and the presidency of the Republic handed over an amended statute of the Constituent Assembly.

Acosta will also announce the Assembly's rules, which will be included on the ballot, which will have only one question: "Do you approve of calling and establishing a National Constituent Assembly to draw up a new Constitution?"

TSE spokespersons said that four out of seven members supported the call for a referendum. They were the representatives of the Democratic Left, Alianza Pais, Roldosista and Patriotic Society parties.

Those against were the right-wing organizations Social Christian and Institutional Renovating parties. The representative of the Democratic Christian Party abstained from voting.

Ecuadorian Constitutional Reform: A Bend or a Break?

Stratfor, Feb 28, 2007
Summary
Ecuadorians are likely to approve an April 15 referendum to revise the constitution. President Rafael Correa aims to use the constitutional reform process to consolidate his power and kick the country's entrenched party elite out of Congress. With a weak judiciary and an unpopular legislature, Correa could become nearly as powerful in Ecuador as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has become in his country. However, opposition groups appear to be stronger in Ecuador than in Venezuela, so compromises are more likely. Correa's presidency -- which probably will last longer than most recent Ecuadorian presidencies -- is a boon to Chavez's regional ambitions, but Ecuador is peripheral to the region and the overall effects of its domestic politics will be limited.

Analysis
Ecuadorians will vote in a popular referendum April 15 on whether to create an assembly for constitutional reform. Since constitutional reform was one of President Rafael Correa's central campaign promises when he was elected in the November 2006 runoff, the referendum is likely to have enough public support to pass.

Ecuador seems to have caught the constitutional reform fever spreading in Latin American countries within Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's sphere of influence. Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia are all taking steps to amend their constitutions, and Nicaragua might join in. In each country, the rationale for reform is that the current structure favors the elite and foreign business interests at the expense of the general population. Meanwhile, in the grip of populist socialist ideology and charismatic leadership, these countries are edging toward increasingly authoritarian regimes. Though Bolivia and Ecuador broadly support Chavez's regional ambitions, they are much less likely to succumb to a concentration of unchecked power.

Concerns that Correa wishes to expand executive power at the expense of the judiciary and legislature are not mere right-wing paranoia. The judicial and legislative branches in Ecuador have become so discredited that the idea of reform without their constraint is very popular. Judicial appointment processes have deviated from the law that authorizes them, and competing judges are issuing more frequent conflicting rulings. Furthermore, according to a Feb. 15 Cedatos/Gallup poll, Correa's approval rating is just above 70 percent, while Congress, opposition groups' main vehicle for action, is polling at 8 percent. Though Ecuador most likely will bend toward Bolivarianism under Correa's leadership, it is possible that the president will override Congress and undertake a more dramatic break with Ecuador's current governmental structure and political elite.

Correa wanted Ecuador's referendum to take place sooner -- March 18 -- and for the resultant constitutional assembly to have unlimited powers, including the power to dismiss current members of Congress. Unsurprisingly, Congress denied the assembly such powers in the same vote that set the referendum for April 15. The 100-member body voted 57-1 (most of the opposition walked out of the vote in protest of the constitutionality of the proposed assembly), indicating that though almost 60 percent of Congress supports Correa, even that portion does not fully support him. Signaling that he does not intend to be deterred by a deliberative body that requires compromise, Correa threatened Feb. 17 to resign if his agenda does not receive support from at least 70 percent of the constitutional assembly. This is likely a bluff, however, and Congress apparently aims to drive a hard bargain. On Feb. 26, a coalition of congressmen from the National Action Institutional Renewal Party, Patriotic Society Party (PSP), Social Christian Party and Christian Democratic Union announced its intent to further restrict the powers of a constituent assembly. Though confirming a new attorney general, these legislators made statements to the effect that any decisions related to altering Ecuador's companies law, judicial appointments or the formation of assemblies must be brought before the legislature for debate and a vote.

Correa has not announced many details regarding the modifications he proposes, but he has an easy case to make for reforming some aspects of the constitution. Ecuador is hardly a model of effective checks and balances; the most obvious structural problem is that the Supreme Court's members are elected by the Supreme Court itself (though this did not prevent Congress from appointing an entirely new court in 2004). Also, presidents cannot serve two consecutive terms (although this has hardly been an issue lately, considering Ecuador has had eight presidents since 2006). Ecuador also has a unicameral legislature; though this is not necessarily bad in and of itself, it can exacerbate abuses of power and is an easier scapegoat for executive complaints than a bicameral legislature.

If Correa's objective were only to improve the structure of the government, it might be welcome. But his rhetoric suggests that his fundamental objective is to remove a semi-entrenched political class (the "Party-ocracy," as he calls it) from power, inevitably expanding his own power in the process. This players-based approach is an alarming motivation for legal reform, and even more so for constitutional reform.

As long as Congress is not disbanded and the press is not curtailed, Ecuador is not on the brink of becoming another Venezuela. For example, Venezuela's legislature voted Jan. 31 to give Chavez total special powers; in contrast, Ecuador's legislature denied granting similar powers to a constitutional assembly -- and that was the part of the legislature that supports Correa's general direction. Furthermore, in March 2005 Venezuela reformed its criminal code to increase penalties for "insulting" public authorities and institutions; Ecuador has not yet attempted any such infringement upon freedom of the press, and there are no indications that such moves are on the horizon.

Correa needs to navigate between a system badly in need of reform, a public primed for change, deeply concerned business interests and the temptation to push the limits of power consolidation. Indigenous groups such as Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, as well as former President Lucio Gutierrez, leader of the PSP, support constitutional reform. PSP is not monolithically behind Correa, however, and many of its members have voiced concerns that Chavez might rule Ecuador through Correa as a proxy.

This is similar to accusations leveled against Bolivian President Evo Morales. Correa and Morales both have good reason to distance themselves from perceptions of being Venezuelan puppets; but such perceptions do not play well domestically, and burning bridges with leaders other than Chavez could prove dangerous if Chavez cannot be Morales and Correa's eternal patron. And with oil prices falling and Venezuela's hostility to foreign investors impeding expanded oil production, Venezuela increasingly will have to use its cash to solve problems at home rather than renting friends abroad.

Constitutional reform is a dangerous moment for Ecuadorian politics. However, the country's still-vigorous opposition and free press, plus the fact that Correa does not seem to have the same appetite for alienating the United States as Chavez, will make it difficult for power in Ecuador to fall into one man's hands. If Correa chooses to play hardball, however, the deck is stacked in his favor; the judiciary is weak, Congress is unpopular and public sentiment is behind him.

Whatever the outcome of the constitutional reforms, it appears that, geopolitically, Chavez has secured an ally -- and U.S. ally Colombia is flanked on both sides by a reinvigorated Bolivarian revolution. This could particularly concern Colombia since border tensions with Ecuador have escalated over the past few months -- including Ecuador's decision to open a new port authority on the border, and Ecuadorian threats to have its air force escort Colombian crop-dusting planes to the ground if they get too close.

Correa will take steps from time to time to assert his independence from Chavez, but Chavez clearly inspires him, and the two leaders are unlikely to disagree on major regional policy initiatives. Nonetheless, Ecuador does not hold a geographically central position on the continent like Bolivia, nor is it an economic force to be reckoned with like Brazil. Ecuador's momentum will help keep Chavez's regional ambitions alive, but it will not be a major player in the region.

Correa threatens to quit if opposition controls charter assembly

From People's Daily Online, Feb 18, 2007.

Ecuador's President Rafael Correa said on Saturday that he will resign if his supporters can not take control of the charter assembly.

Correa said in a nationwide radio speech that if opposition candidates win control of the assembly, "I simply have to go home."

Congress has approved an April 15 referendum on whether to create the assembly to rewrite the constitution. Most opposition lawmakers stayed away before the Tuesday vote in protest, saying that the measure is unconstitutional.

"My heart is not in power. It's in service," Correa said.

Correa said he was hoping to win at least 70 percent of the seats in the assembly. He said constitutional reform is necessary to limit the power of Ecuador's traditional parties, which he blamed for the country's problems. Correa has called Congress "a sewer of corruption."

The bill for the referendum was passed 57-1 in the 100-member Congress. Six parties - the Democratic Left, the Popular Democratic Movement, the Democratic and Ethical Network, Pachakutic, the Ecuadorian Roldosist Party, and the Patriotic Society - voted for the initiative. Only one opposition politician voted against it.

The plan, which was immediately passed to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, is the first political triumph for Rafael Correa, who has been campaigning on the issue since taking power as Ecuador's president on Jan. 15.

The decision was reached as some 1,000 people protested outside Congress, seeking an immediate start of the referendum. Last month, Correa's backers stormed the building to pressure for the vote, forcing a suspension of the session.

"If we want a change, vote for the candidates of the people to end these mafias that have plundered the country," the president said on Saturday.

Correa has said that the assembly will have the power to dismiss not only lawmakers but judges and even the president himself.

Ecuador Prez: Assembly May Recall All

Quito, Feb 14 (Prensa Latina) Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa told national media on Wednesday that he ratified the right of the Constituent Assembly, after it is set up, to demand the dissolution of Congress and even his resignation as head of State.

The president was responding to the Legislature s decision yesterday (through an accord between the minority bloc and PSP-Patriotic Society deputies) to approve the call for a referendum to setup a Constituent Assembly, but with the caveat that they will keep their seats.

The changes to the proposal provoked a strong reaction from the social and political movements, thousands of which members had gathered outside the Legislature.

I will put my post at the disposal of the Assembly, which will ask for the dissolution of Congress, and thus keep a promise I made during the campaign last year, he said, adding that the constituency works on the base of the people s sovereignty.

After the proposal was approved, the Supreme Electoral Court announced the plebiscite will be held on April 15.

Ecuador Congress Approves Plebiscite

Quito, Feb 13 (Prensa Latina) The Ecuadorian Congress minority bloc and PSP, Patriotic Society Party, approved President Rafael Correa´s request to hold a referendum to set up a Constituent Assembly.

Approval was tied to some changes to Assembly bylaws, which social and political movements that rallied outside Congress protested.

The Supreme Election Court can now arrange the fully-empowered Assembly to hold elections in 150 days, not the 125 days the president had proposed.

Among the conditions eliminated lie collecting one percent of voters´ signatures to run as Assembly candidate.

Neither will the Constituent Assembly be able to disband Congress, which the social and indigenous movements consider a violation of their rights.

Ecuador Roars for Popular Assembly

Quito, Feb 13 (Prensa Latina) Social, political and indigenous movements are protesting again to the Ecuadorian Congress for an immediate vote on a Constituent Assembly.

Group leaders blame the Parliament for the political crisis and encouraging destabilization of the country, since it has blocked any attempt to give way to the assembly referendum.

President of the Indigenous Nationalities Confederation of Sierra Ecuarunari, Humberto Cholango, denounced the right wing parliamentary majority for kidnapping the plebiscite with an absence to force a limited Assembly.

It was announced later that they did not attend the meeting because of an agreement between the minority bloc and the Patriotic Society (PSP) to approve the consultation.

In this context Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa ratified the call for consultations this week with or without Congress.

During his visit to Puyo city in the Amazonian province of Pastaza, Correa said the people will have a full-powered Assembly to build a new country.