The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.