Ecuador's Congress swears in 21 alternate lawmakers to achieve quorum amid political crisis

IHT, Mar 20, 2007
QUITO, Ecuador: Ecuador's constitutional crisis took a new twist as alternate lawmakers were escorted into Congress under the cover of darkness and sworn in to replace some of the legislators fired by the country's highest electoral court.

The 21 alternate lawmakers were shuttled to the congressional building before dawn Tuesday as hundreds of national police stood watch, allowing the 100-seat unicameral legislature to begin a session with a quorum of 55 lawmakers for the first time in two weeks.

The crisis deepened in early March when a majority of congressmen voted to oust the president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for approving President Rafael Correa's version of an April 15 referendum plan on the need for a new constitution. The tribunal responded by dismissing 57 lawmakers, accusing them of trying to block the referendum.

Correa, a leftist whose party holds no seats in the current Congress, is pushing for a new charter to limit the power of the country's traditional political parties, which he blames for the country's corruption and political instability. Ecuador has had eight presidents in the last decade.

Correa has acknowledged that administration officials met with groups of alternate congressmen to encourage them to take up the posts left by the dismissal of the regular legislators, but it is unclear what affect the alternate lawmakers will have on Correa's influence in Congress. The 21 alternate lawmakers installed Tuesday belonged to the three major opposition parties.

Congress president Jorge Cevallos said the installation of the lawmakers was intended to "overcome the political crisis."

The fired congressmen, however, immediately condemned the alternate congressmen as traitors.

"They have betrayed their political party," Alfonso Harb, an ousted Social Christian lawmaker said, referring to three alternates from his party who took the oath of office. "We don't recognize the legitimacy of today's session."

Although the 21 alternate lawmakers allow for a 51-member quorum in Congress, many congressional decisions need a two-thirds majority — or 67 votes — to pass. That means if the remaining 36 alternate lawmakers are not sworn in, Congress may not be able to pass important legislation.

Cevallos said he hopes to have those alternates installed by next week. If not, he said he will call on the second alternates.

The alternate lawmakers were elected at the same time as the regular congressmen, and are supposedly hand-picked by the lawmakers they stand in for and represent the same political parties.

Alvaro Noboa, the billionaire banana baron defeated in November's presidential election runoff, accused Correa of offering the alternate lawmakers money or other favors to get them to take up their posts in Congress, which the president has called "a sewer of corruption."

Noboa said it was an example of the "the system of the briefcase man" at work, Ecuadorean slang for political bribes.

Correa's administration has denied bribing the alternate lawmakers.

"This is not a good start," Cevallos said of the substitute lawmakers' sneaking into Congress before dawn. "They should come in through the front door. No one has any reason to hide."

Former President Lucio Gutierrez also criticized the alternate congressmen for entering the building with police protection.

"What kind of democracy is this?" said Gutierrez, who was forced from office in April 2005 by Congress amid street protests. "This is a de facto government that intimidates, that persecutes people."

Dozens of angry protesters gathered in front of the congressional building early Tuesday, most in support of an assembly to write a new constitution.

Ecuador Congress Resumes Sessions

Quito, Mar 20 (Prensa Latina) The Congress of Ecuador resumed its ordinary sessions after 13-day suspension due to maneuvering of 57 ex members dismissed.

After confirming attendance of 55 legislators, including 22 substitutes, Chairman Jorge Cevallos ordered to resume work.

Cevallos called his colleagues to work in favor of the country and admitted to a crisis as Congress stopped work since March 7 with the 57 dismissals.

The Supreme Election Court dismissed the group (conservatives) due to attempts to block the process started March 1 convening a poll for April 15.

The sessions were convened under tight security and some 1,000 Ecuadorians that rally outside Congress in support of the government and the substitute legislators.

Ecuador's power struggle

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

Correa's radical plans spark battle in Ecuador

Duroyan Fertl, 16 March 2007
Green Left Weekly
The small Andean nation of Ecuador is facing a political crisis as the Congress and the courts turn on each other over new president Rafael Correa’s plans for a Constituent Assembly and a “citizens’ revolution” to build “21st century socialism” in the poverty-stricken country.
Correa, a self-described socialist and close ally of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, was elected late last year promising to redirect Ecuador’s oil wealth into social spending, increase popular democracy and limit the power of the traditional political parties. Central to this platform is convoking a popular Constituent Assembly to rewrite Ecuador’s constitution.
In February the 100-member Congress, which is controlled by parties hostile to Correa and his policies, passed a bill allowing a referendum on the assembly after the opposition Patriotic Society Party (PSP) of former president Lucio Gutierrez voted in favour. However there was an immediate dispute over the power that the assembly will have, Correa arguing for a plenary power enabling it to dismiss not only the Congress and courts, but also the president.
While the Congress disagreed, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) endorsed Correa’s statements and announced on March 1 that the referendum would be held on April 15. In response, a majority of Congress, including the PSP, voted to sack the president of the TSE. The court immediately fired back, sacking the 57 members of Congress responsible and setting up a police cordon to prevent the sacked members from entering.
The Constitutional Tribunal has refused to rule on an appeal by the fired lawmakers until Congress endorses it. Congress, however, is unable to convene, as it can’t achieve the required quorum of 51 legislators.
On March 13, 20 legislators broke through police lines and entered the Congress before being removed by riot police using tear gas. Correa blamed the ousted members of Congress for the violence, saying, “These people want to create chaos because they know they’re already out”.
The ousted legislators, made up of members of parties with close ties to Ecuador’s financial oligarchy, have threatened to set up a rival congress in Guayaquil, the country’s second major city and base of the right-wing Social Christian Party.
The Constitutional Tribunal has also warned Correa to obey its forthcoming ruling on the validity of the referendum, but Correa disputes the court’s power to rule on the matter, and has threatened to call mass protests to ensure that the assembly goes ahead.
Humberto Cholango from ECUARUNARI, one of the organisations representing Ecuador’s approximately 40% indigenous population, has also called for a massive mobilisation of all the indigenous and social movements of the country to defend the assembly.
If the referendum is successful, it will allow the election of 130 people who will have four months to rewrite the constitution. A recent poll shows that only 17% of Ecuadorians are satisfied with the Congress, which is regarded as corrupt, while over 75% support the Constituent Assembly.

Ecuador judge rejects lawmakers' request for injunction over firing

QUITO, Ecuador: An Ecuadorean judge on Friday rejected a request to block a court ruling that ousted more than half of the politically unstable nation's lawmakers last week.
Ecuador's top electoral tribunal has fired 57 of the 100 members of Congress, accusing them of interfering in a referendum to redraw the constitution. The decision came after the lawmakers ordered impeachment proceedings against tribunal members who backed the referendum.
The lawmakers asked that the court block their firing, but on Friday judge Victor Mendoza ruled that the electoral tribunal's ruling must be respected.
Mendoza made the ruling in Rocafuerte, 230 kilometers (145 miles) southwest of the capital, Quito, where protesters on Thursday attacked the ousted lawmakers seeking the injunction, throwing rocks and punching them. At least seven people were injured, police said.
Congress approved the referendum plan last month with the caveat that if approved, the special assembly called to retool the charter would not be able to close the legislature.
But the country's new leftist President Rafael Correa later overruled that stipulation, saying the assembly would have ultimate power — and setting off a constitutional crisis.
Correa, who took office Jan. 15, has advocated a new charter that limits the power of the traditional political parties, which he blames for the nation's corruption and political instability. He is the country's eighth president in a decade.

Ecuadorians Support Referendum

Quito, Mar 16 (Prensa Latina) Massive demonstrations Friday in Ecuador confirm continuing popular support for the national consultation on April 15 and the Constituent Assembly.
Demonstrators in Quito and Guayaquil supported holding the referendum, and rejected actions by 57 former legislators to recover their seats, after the Electoral Supreme Court (TSE) dismissed them for trying to hinder the national consultation.
Students also rallied in front of Congress Thursday, with slogans against the deputies.
In Guayaquil, thousands of persons condemned the former lawmakers, and urged Congress President Jorge Cevallos to resume sessions with the substitutes and deputies of minority groups.
Amid that context, protesters prevented several of the dismissed deputies from entering a hearing analyzing an appeal to make the sanction unlawful.
Meanwhile, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa stressed the complex situation will be over when Congress restarts its sessions, and affirmed the 57 legislators should resign in a dignified manner.
sus dig lgo mf

Dismissed congressmen injured by stone-throwing demonstrators in Ecuador

People's Daily Online, March 15, 2007.
Two former Ecuadorian lawmakers Thursday were injured by stones thrown by demonstrators, intensifying a battle between legislators and the nation's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).
Gloria Gallardo and Silka Sanchez are two of the 57 opposition members ousted from the 100-strong Congress by the TSE last Wednesday for blocking proposals for a referendum on President Rafael Correa's planned constitutional reforms.
Sanchez and Gallardo are members of the Renewing National Institutional Action Party (Prian), whose candidate, multi-millionaire Alvaro Noboa, lost the presidential election to Correa last year.
The demonstrators also smashed the windows of their cars and damaged equipment belonging to a local television crew before police dispersed them with tear gas.
Ecuador's two main cities, Quito, the capital, and Guayaquil, the largest city, have witnessed marches supporting Correa's Constituent Assembly, a proposed body sought by the president to rewrite the nation's constitution.
Elsewhere Thursday, Federico Perez, a dismissed congressman from the Prian party, formally resigned from his post in the government, saying that he is unsatisfied with both the opposition and government, and would never return to politics.
The TSE is also meeting over possible punishment for a judge in the coastal province of Manabi, who supported a motion granting a reprieve to the sacked deputies.
On Wednesday, Correa announced he would study the possibility of calling an extraordinary session to swear in substitutes for the 57 sacked deputies, without whom the Congress does not have the quorum to make decisions.
Jaime Velasco, president of Ecuadorian Supreme Court, called for negotiations to solve the crisis.

Ecuadorean Opposition Plans Parallel Congress After Shooting

By Alex Kennedy and Bill Faries

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's suspended lawmakers, in a challenge to President Rafael Correa, plan to hold a parallel session outside Quito after police blocked their entry to the capitol and two supporters were wounded in a drive-by shooting.

Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo said opposition leaders now have backing from more than two-thirds of the 100-member congress to meet as an alternative assembly next week. Riot police used tear gas yesterday to stop the lawmakers from reaching their offices after the electoral court suspended the ``political rights'' of 57 opposition members last week.

``We're seeing a regime that's an authentic dictatorship,'' former President Lucio Gutierrez, a leader of the opposition Patriotic Society party, said in a telephone interview from Quito. ``Violence has been rising in a dangerous way, and it could at some point turn into a civil war in Ecuador.''

The shooting, which occurred outside the Marriott Hotel, where the lawmakers retreated, deepens a clash over Correa's plans to remake the country along what he calls socialist economic and political lines. Correa's proposal for a new constitution -- the trigger for the current showdown -- echoes steps taken by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales to consolidate their control over the congress, courts and election authorities.

``They abused their power, they thought they were immune,'' Correa said in comments broadcast on the Cablenoticias television station after the legislators were shut out of their offices. ``Now they're getting a taste of their own medicine,'' he said.

`Quiet For Now'

Ecuador's congress voted March 6 to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan for a national referendum on re-writing the constitution. The next day, the court suspended the lawmakers who sought to remove the judge, ruling their votes violated the constitution. Correa supported the court's decision and said the lawmakers would be replaced.

The top constitutional court yesterday rejected a request by the president of congress to rule on the legality of the suspension.

``With this situation, Correa's ability to govern will be reduced,'' said Claudio Loser, former director of Western Hemisphere affairs at the International Monetary Fund and a political analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

The U.S. Ambassador in Ecuador, Linda Jewell, said on Cablenoticias that the conflict among Correa, the congress and the courts is a domestic situation.

``We're going to be quiet for now,'' she said.

Correa, 43, a U.S.-trained economist who served a five- month stint as finance minister in 2005, won 57 percent of votes in a Nov. 26 run-off election in which he ran without the formal backing of any political party.

`Government Crisis'

During and after the campaign, Correa aligned himself with Chavez's socialist vision, vowing to boost spending on the poor, renegotiate foreign oil contracts and review Ecuador's approximately $10 billion in foreign debt obligations. Venezuela on Feb. 22 offered Ecuador as much as $500 million of ``financial cooperation.''

Correa took office in January as Ecuador's eighth president in about a decade. On Jan. 30, about 5,000 of his supporters tried to storm congress to demand lawmakers approve plans for a referendum on the constitution.

``Correa is forcing a government crisis,'' Loser said. ``This is going to get investors even more nervous.''

Ecuador has twice backed away from threats to default on debt payments since Correa took power. Finance Minister Ricardo Patino said March 8 that the country wouldn't ignore foreign debt obligations.

``Our creditors should know that we're very responsible,'' Patino said.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez said in an interview that the shots were fired from a passing motorcycle carrying two people. One of the opposition lawmakers' supporters outside the hotel was hit in the back, the other in the leg.

20 Fired Ecuadorean Lawmakers Take Seats

Wednesday March 14, 2007

By GONZALO SOLANO

QUITO, Ecuador (AP via The Guardian) - Some 20 lawmakers fired last week by Ecuador's top electoral court for allegedly interfering with plans for a constitutional referendum forced their way past dozens of police guarding Congress and took up their seats on Tuesday.

``We are in a dictatorship!'' shouted one of the dismissed legislators, opposition Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo, who made her way into the chamber through riot police and tear gas.

At least two members of Congress and three other people were injured in the incident, which also prompted rival executive and legislative police forces to scuffle with each other.

The new leftist president, Rafael Correa, blamed the violence on the ousted lawmakers.

``We are peaceful people. We will keep public order,'' he told Radio Vision. ``These people want to create chaos because they know they're already out.''

The executive, legislative and judicial branches of government are all grappling for power in this politically unstable Andean nation, accusing each other of violating the constitution and trying to assert their supremacy.

Correa, an admirer of Venezuela's firebrand leader Hugo Chavez, has vowed to revamp the country's political system since taking office in January. He is determined to hold an April 15 referendum on whether Ecuador should throw out its constitution and write a new charter limiting the power of the traditional political parties he blames for corruption and political instability.

Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years, Correa says he won't respect any decision by Congress or the courts to block the referendum. If approved, Ecuador would have five months to elect 130 members of a special assembly that would begin rewriting the constitution next fall.

Congress approved the referendum plan with the caveat that the assembly would not be able to close the legislature. Correa later overruled that stipulation, saying the assembly would have ultimate power and setting off the constitutional crisis.

The country's top electoral court, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, which approved Correa's plan, fired 57 congressmen from the 100-seat unicameral legislature last week after they ordered impeachment proceedings against the court's majority.

The fired president of Congress, Jorge Cevallos, then turned to Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal, which refused Tuesday to review his complaints until a majority of Congress members sign the appeal. Since the electoral court fired the lawmakers, Congress has lacked a quorum of members to convene a formal session.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez, one of the fired legislators who pushed past police Tuesday, said they had acted ``to prevent a dictatorship. We don't want dictatorship. We want democracy.''

Constitutional experts have said both the lawmakers and the court were violating the country's charter - not an uncommon occurrence in Ecuador, where Congress has illegally dismissed three elected presidents in the last decade after they lost popularity.

Ecuador: Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?

Stratfor, March 13, 2007

Summary

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide whether to reinstate 57 legislators dismissed March 7 by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This leaves the country with an unresolved crisis regarding legitimate authority -- a situation in which the military could intervene.

Analysis

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide on the reinstatement of 57 legislators dismissed six days earlier by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The constitutional court realized that without President Rafael Correa's support, its decision would not matter except as a possible trigger for massive protests. The court announced that the motion filed lacked the required signatures from a congressional majority, but that it could be considered if it is refiled with the signatures.

If the Constitutional Tribunal had ruled on reinstating the 57 legislators, the result could have been chaos on the streets. There would be large demonstrations, led in part by the indigenous groups of the highlands, echoing Correa's demand that the ruling be ignored. Traditionally, at such inflection points in Ecuadorian politics, the military steps in. Since those demonstrations did not materialize, however, the military is waiting to see whether the ongoing crisis reaches a boiling point.

The situation began March 7, when Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal fired 57 of the 100 members of the country's unicameral Congress, based on allegations of interfering with a constitutional referendum after those 57 attempted to dismiss a majority of the tribunal's members. Correa announced March 8 that if the constitutional court were to reinstate the legislators, he would consider the ruling invalid and call for a popular uprising against the decision. In other words, Correa is de facto dismissing the judicial and legislative branches of Ecuador's government and making himself the sole authority. Strengthened by widespread public support (though it dropped from the 70 percent range in January to around 65 percent in early March, according to polling firm Cedatos/Gallup), Correa has decided to descend the slippery slope from populist to authoritarian.

Ecuador has seen its share of coups, with the military sometimes supporting the sitting president and sometimes overthrowing him, but usually acting decisively either way "for the good of the country." This case is a tricky one for the military, however. Correa is clearly dismantling the government's checks and balances and alienating the country's commercial class. On the other hand, he is very popular. It is not clear whether the military could control the public backlash that would occur if it tried to overthrow Correa, and it probably does not have the stomach to try at this point.

The military appears to have a cordial relationship with Correa thus far -- Correa has even approved military pay raises -- and is not likely to rock the boat. However, if the opposition is able to gather strength, the military will have to make tough decisions.

Many of the deposed congressmen gathered March 13 at a Marriott hotel in Ecuador. Several supported an announcement by Gloria Gallardo, a dismissed legislator from the opposition Institutional Renewal Party of National Action, who said that democracy in Ecuador is dead and Correa has become a dictator. Furthermore, Pedro Almeida of the Patriotic Society Party called for an extraordinary Congress to meet in Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil, located in the west coast lowlands where the opposition movement is based. If opposition political parties and businessmen can create a well-organized grassroots movement to support the deposed legislators' reinstatement, popular unrest could become significant.

Any such organized opposition would shrink Correa's window of opportunity for attempting to restore a semblance of legitimacy to his decisions by getting Congress to function again. Correa would do this by replacing some of the dismissed congressmen with preselected alternates loyal to him. Even if Correa's popularity holds above the 60 percent mark -- which is likely -- the country is now dangerously divided by competing claims to legitimate authority. Leading up to Ecuador's April 15 referendum on the formation of a constitutional assembly, the military could face increasing pressure to intervene before, after, or during the outbreak of violent demonstrations regarding the dismissed legislators.

The least stable -- and almost certainly bloody -- outcome would be an attempt to oust Correa. The most stable outcome, and still the most likely, is that Correa will keep the military's support, suppress the opposition, continue his constitutional reform, and eventually restore a veneer of respectability to the other branches of government by repopulating Congress with his supporters and committing to honor all court decisions under the new constitution. Such a turn of events might help preserve domestic tranquility, but it would also push Correa further toward becoming an imitation of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Ecuador Rightwing Deputies Sow Chaos

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador s President Rafael Correa publicly accused 57 deputies, dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) of sowing chaos in the country in an attempt to recover their congressional seats on Tuesday.

They will be held responsible for any violent act or incident during today s demonstrations in support of a referendum calling for a Constituent Assembly, Correa told press.

He warned that the legislators, taking advantage of the poverty of the people, have hired people in several provinces to sow violence in Quito.

"Those who support the Constituent Assembly are peaceful people, and we will take care of public order. However, these people [the dismissed deputies] want to generate chaos because they know they are already out," Correa said.

The Ecuadorean president called on "the proud, sovereign, honorable youth not to succumb to these provocations. Let us march, demonstrate absolutely peacefully, saying NO to violence," he added..

Gunmen shoot at Ecuador opposition crowd, witnesses

QUITO (Reuters) Mar 13, 2007 - Unidentified gunmen on motorcycles shot at a crowd of supporters of fired Ecuadorean lawmakers, injuring two people on Tuesday and escalating violence in a feud between Congress and the president, witnesses said on Tuesday.

It was not immediately clear how seriously the two had been hurt in the politically unstable Andean nation. The shots were fired outside a hotel only hours after fired lawmakers scuffled with police and forced their way into Congress.

"A group of unknown assailants on motorcycles shot at our supporters outside. There are two people hurt," said opposition lawmaker Clemente Vasquez who was inside the hotel. Witnesses and legislators said no lawmaker had been hurt.

Fifty-seven lawmakers have refused to accept an electoral court decision to fire them last week. They had tried to reverse a ruling that would allow the popular President Rafael Correa to hold a referendum that would weaken Congressional powers.

Ecuador Court Rules Deputies Stay Out

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) In a surprise decision Tuesday, Ecuador s Constitutional Court refused to hear the petition for reinstatement by 57 deputies dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE).

The request, presented by Congress leader Jorge Cevallos, enraged the right-wing legislators who had been dismissed by the TSE for attempting to obstruct the referendum on the Constituent Assembly.

According to judicial sources, the Assessment and Receipt Committee determined that, under the Constitution, Cevallos claim failed to fulfil the requisite of support by the majority in Congress.

Just before the decision, a group of dismissed legislators from PRIAN (Institutional Renovator) and Patriotic Society confronted the police and violently entered the congressional building, but Cevallos determined there was not a quorum and suspended today s session.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people have gathered outside the Legislature to guard it and demand expulsion of the dismissed legislators.

President of La Sierra Indigenous Nationalities Confederation, Humberto Cholango, warned that "if the dismissed deputies attempt to return to their seats, this movement and all the people will rise up," because the people are determined to have a Constituent Assembly, he concluded.

Ecuador: Court Declines Expulsion Ruling

Stratfor, March 13, 2007
Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 rejected a request to rule on the constitutionality of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's decision to expel 57 legislators from the National Congress. The Constitutional Tribunal said the expelled members' request for a ruling lacked the support of a majority of the National Congress. Tribunal President Santiago Velazquez ruled that the expelled members can appeal the ruling or file a new complaint with the Constitutional Tribunal once they have the necessary support from congress.

Ecuador Congress Ends Session After Lawmakers Banned

By Alex Kennedy

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's congress canceled its session today after riot police used tear gas to keep suspended lawmakers from entering the capitol building.

Jorge Cevallos, the legislature's president, said he canceled the meeting because too few congressmen attended. The country's top constitutional court today rejected a request by Cavellos to rule on the legality of the suspension last week of 57 opposition lawmakers by the electoral court.

``This escalating political confrontation carries the risk of further erosion to the institutional backbone of the country,'' Alberto Ramos, a senior economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in a note to clients.

The court's decision will probably lead to the appointment of the suspended congressmen's lesser-known substitutes, a move that should strengthen President Rafael Correa, Ramos said.

Police used shields and tear gas to keep a group of suspended congressmen out of congress. Officers allowed about eight of the deputies into the building to protect them from Correa supporters, Luis Cueva, head of the congressional police force, said on Ecuavisa.

Ecuador's 100-member congress on March 6 voted to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan to hold a referendum on whether to rewrite the constitution. The court on March 7 ruled the vote unconstitutional and ordered the suspension of lawmakers who voted for it.

``If not toned down soon, the heated political rhetoric and confrontation could start to erode the fundamentals of the country,'' Ramos said. ``At that stage, what has been so far disconcerting rhetoric and questionable willingness to stay current on external debt obligations could easily mutate into genuine capacity to pay issues.''

Correa said yesterday his government won't pay $40 million in interest it owes the central bank, in a bid to free up more funds for health programs. The government, which owes the central bank $1.2 billion, last week backed off threats to default on $10 billion of foreign debt when Finance Minister Ricardo Patino said the government will probably make an interest payment in May.

20 fired Ecuador congressmen force their way into parliament

IHT, March 13, 2007

QUITO, Ecuador: Some 20 congressmen fired last week by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for allegedly interfering with plans for a national referendum forced their way past dozens of police guarding Congress and took up their seats on Tuesday.

Opposition Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo, one of the dismissed legislators, shouted, "We are in a dictatorship!" and accused new leftist President Rafael Correa of ordering police to keep the fired congressmen from entering.

The tribunal dismissed 57 congressmen it accused of interfering with a national referendum, scheduled for April 15 and supported by Correa, on the need for a special assembly to rewrite the constitution.

The dispute has plunged this unstable small Andean into a political crisis, with the tribunal, Congress and the president accusing one another of violating the constitution.

Correa says the new charter is needed to limit the power of traditional political parties that he blames for corruption and political instability. Correa is Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years.

The tribunal acted last week after 57 congressmen in the 100-seat unicameral legislature fired the tribunal's president for approving the referendum and then began impeachment proceedings against him and three other judges who formed the majority in the seven-member court.

Constitutional experts questioned both the congressmen's actions and the response of the tribunal.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez, one of the fired legislators who pushed past police guards, said they had acted "to prevent a dictatorship. We don't want dictatorship. We want democracy."

Television images showed one congressman lying on the floor of Congress apparently unconscious from a fall. Red Cross workers were helping him. Another congressman received treatment for his eyes, which were irritated by tear gas fired by police trying to keep the fired legislators from entering.

The Constitutional Tribunal convened Tuesday to study a complaint from Jorge Cevallos, the fired president of Congress, that the electoral tribunal's actions violated the constitution.

Correa has already said he would not respect any decision by the Constitutional Tribunal aimed at blocking the referendum. He argues the election tribunal has final say on electoral matters, not the Constitutional Tribunal.

Since the firing of the 57 legislators, Congress has not had a quorum of 51 members to convene a session.

The legislature was again unable to achieve a quorum on Tuesday, and Cevallos rescheduled the next session for the coming Tuesday.

Ecuador Tribunal Warns President

By GONZALO SOLANO 03.09.07

From Forbes

Ecuador's political crisis deepened Friday as the Constitutional Tribunal warned President Rafael Correa that he would be acting illegally if he ignores its upcoming ruling on the constitutionality of a national referendum.

Correa said Thursday night that he would not respect any ruling that opposed the referendum on whether to rewrite the country's constitution - one of several disputes that have set Ecuador's courts, Congress and president at one another's throats.

Correa supports the referendum and the creation of a special assembly to rewrite the constitution to limit the power of a political class he blames for Ecuador's problems of corruption and political instability. Correa is the country's eighth president in 10 years.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal this week fired 57 congressmen it accused of interfering with the referendum, which the lawmakers have called unconstitutional. The congressmen's interference consisted of calling for the impeachment of a majority of members of the Electoral Tribunal.

The separate Constitutional Tribunal is reviewing the measure's legality, but Correa said the court has no authority in the matter.

The court's president, Santiago Velasquez, warned Friday: "It is a crime when a citizen disregards a ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal."

Congress, which Correa has called "a sewer of corruption," approved the April 15 referendum last month, but stipulated that the 130-member assembly would not have the power to dismiss lawmakers and other officials elected in last year's elections.

But Correa disregarded the restrictions imposed by Congress, and the Electoral Tribunal approved his request that the assembly have unlimited powers to dismiss any elected official.

The seven-member electoral tribunal voted to oust the 57 congressmen after they signed a petition to start impeachment proceedings against the four court members who voted for Correa's version of the referendum.

Correa, 43, a U.S.-educated economist who took office Jan. 15, says says he wants to bring socialism to Ecuador. He ran as a political outsider and earned support from Ecuadoreans fed up with the political establishment.

A joint editorial published Friday on the front page of Ecuador's 10 most important newspapers criticized Correa for his confrontational style and urged him to respect "legal norms, seek national unity and not to arbitrarily interpret the constitution ... and especially not instigate division and clashes among Ecuadoreans."

Ecuador to Make Next Payment on Bonds, Patino Says

By Alex Kennedy and Matthew Walter

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuadorean Finance Minister Ricardo Patino, retreating from a threatened default for a second time, said the country will probably make its next debt payment on schedule as the government faces no imminent financial crisis.

``I expect we'll make the payment,'' Patino, 52, told reporters today in Quito. ``Our creditors should know that we're very responsible. We're not going to ignore foreign debt obligations.''

Ecuador's bonds jumped as investors raised bets the threat of a default is receding. The government is still seeking to renegotiate the terms and conditions of loans from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank, Patino said. The dollar, adopted by the country in 2000, will remain the official currency in the ``short term,'' he said.

Patino's comments mark the second time the government has backed off from threats to default on $10 billion of foreign debt after President Rafael Correa said he might halt payments to free up funds for social programs. Correa, who took office on Jan. 15, said last month he could only fight one battle at a time, and his priority is to redraft the nation's constitution, a plan opposition lawmakers are resisting.

Correa's clash with congress intensified today as baton- wielding riot police blocked 57 of the 100 lawmakers from entering the legislature in Quito to enforce an order by the country's top electoral court suspending their ``political rights.''

The congress voted March 6 to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan to hold a vote on the constitution. The court ruled the lawmakers' vote unconstitutional and ordered them suspended.

'Left to Right'

Correa's push for a national referendum on a constitutional overhaul makes it less likely he'll default, said Vicente Albornoz, president of Quito-based economic research firm Cordes.

The president, who last year ran without the backing of any established political party, said in February he finds it difficult to fight on ``various fronts'' and that his focus is on changing the constitution.

Lawmakers, including Correa's allies, criticized the government for harming the economy by with threats to default.

``The whole country, from the left to the right, demanded this clarity,'' Albornoz said.

Ecuador paid $135 million in interest payments on Feb. 15, reversing earlier plans to invoke a 30-day grace period because of a cash shortage. The next payment of $30.6 million is due May 15.

Bond Yields

``Until we have a clear indicator that the government intends to default, I think the bonds should be doing fine,'' said Carola Sandy, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. The bonds have gained since January on expectations the government will pay, Sandy said.

Patino reiterated the government's forecast for economic growth of between 3.3 percent and 3.5 percent this year.

The yield on Ecuador's benchmark 10 percent bond due in 2030 closed down 31 basis points, or 0.31 percentage point, to 11.75 percent, its lowest since Feb. 26. The price, which moves inversely to the yield, rose 2.1 cents, or 2.5 percent, to 86.1 cents on the dollar, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Ecuador police surround Congress to keep out lawmakers suspended by electoral tribunal

IHT, March 8, 2007

QUITO, Ecuador: Dozens of police officers surrounded Ecuador's Congress Thursday to prevent a majority of lawmakers from entering as the politically unstable Andean nation descended into a constitutional crisis.

The 57 congressmen were fired Wednesday by the same four electoral judges they are seeking to impeach. The judges accused the lawmakers of interfering with a referendum on whether to rewrite the constitution.

Ecuador's new leftist President Rafael Correa, an admirer of Venezuela's firebrand leader Hugo Chavez, sided with the court and was pressing ahead with the referendum, a step the congressmen have called illegal.

Correa wants a constitutional assembly to limit the power of a political class he blames for Ecuador's problems.

The seven-member tribunal voted to oust the congressmen after 57 members of the 100-seat unicameral Congress signed a petition to start impeachment proceedings against the four court members who approved the referendum.

"The impostors and phonies are finished. They've been defeated. No matter what they do, the referendum and the assembly are irreversible," Correa told his supporters from the balcony of the presidential palace Thursday.

But opposition congressman Carlos Larreategui said Thursday that all sides were to blame: "President Correa has violated the constitution, also Congress, also the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. No one respects the law,"

Congress was unable to convene Thursday because it needs a quorum of 51 lawmakers.

The fired congressmen met in a hotel and as they were leaving, a crowd of 50 protesters armed with clubs shouted insults.

Television images showed dozens of protesters punching and beating opposition congressman Osvaldo Flores with clubs. One protester was injured when another lawmaker hit him with a car as he tried to flee the angry crowd.

Gloria Gallardo, one of the lawmakers supposedly suspended, called the tribunal's actions "illegal and unconstitutional" and said the 57 lawmakers would continue in their posts.

"Congress is not a building. It's the legislators. Let this government know that the opposition is not a fragile opposition" like the one in Venezuela that allowed itself to be "smashed" by Chavez, she said.

Correa, who took office Jan. 15, says his proposed reforms aim to make elected officials more accountable.

Constitutional experts said both the lawmakers and the court were violating the country's charter — a common occurrence in this small Andean nation, where Congress has illegally dismissed three elected presidents in the last decade after they lost popularity. Correa is Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years.

"The constitutional framework has been broken," said legal analyst Pablo Guerrero, who argued that the election tribunal has the authority to dismiss public employees and appointees accused of interfering in an election process, but not elected officials.

The vague wording of Ecuador's constitutions has provoked clashes between presidents, lawmakers and the courts since democracy was restored in 1979 after a decade of dictatorship.

A separate Constitutional Tribunal might eventually resolve the new dispute, but its rulings have often been ignored in the past.

Correa has called Congress "a sewer of corruption." But 80 percent of the congressmen who took office in January are first-term lawmakers who say they should have a chance to show they are honest.

Correa, a U.S.-educated economist, ran as a political outsider, earning support from Ecuadoreans fed up with the political establishment.

Ecuadorean lawmakers in the past have engaged in fist fights, cut the cord of an opponent's microphone and hurled ashtrays. One pulled out a pistol and shot a colleague.

And in an episode captured on television, a drunken congressman who is now mayor of Guayaquil, Ecuador's largest city, staggered over to an opponent and tried to urinate on him.

___

Associated Press Writer Monte Hayes in Lima, Peru, contributed to the report