Ecuador's warring congresses vie for control

Euro2day, Mar 20, 2007.

By Hal Weitzman in Caracas
Ecuador slipped further into political chaos on Tuesday, with the likely creation of rival pro- and anti-government legislatures, each claiming legitimacy under the constitution.

The institutional crisis – pitting all the main arms of government against each other – underlines the fragile state of democracy in Ecuador, one of the most politically unstable countries in South America.

One legislative body, including lawmakers who support president Rafael Correa, met under heavy guard in Congress.

The other, made up of 57 opposition legislators sacked after a fight with the country's judiciary, was expected to meet in northern Quito.

"If [the sacked members of Congress] meet elsewhere, it will be an illegitimate body, because those legislators were legally sanctioned," said Jorge Cevallos, the president of Congress, who appears to have switched loyalties from the opposition Prian party.

The situation follows electoral results last year that handed the presidency to Mr Correa, a radical leftwinger determined to enact sweeping political reform, but which gave control of Congress to his rivals.

Mr Correa has called for a referendum on April 15 on whether to convoke an assembly to rewrite the constitution. This month the legislature tried to delay the poll by sacking the head of the electoral court. The court deemed that move illegal and fired the 57 Congress members who supported it.

Mr Cevallos said he would instead convene the Congress with substitute deputies, elected last year in case members of Congress needed to be replaced. "With the substitutes we will have a quorum," he said.

If the opposition proceeds with its rival legislature, the country will be presented with two Congresses, both of which can claim electoral legitimacy and a quorum of at least 51 members.

The opposition lobbied substitutes and urged them not to attend the government-backed Congress. That tactic appeared to have failed on Tuesday, as 22 substitute deputies were ferried to Congress with an escort of hundreds of armed police.

The deposed politicians refused to outline their strategy, saying they feared they would be attacked by pro-government activists. They had threatened to try again to take up their seats in Congress, a move that resulted in violence last week. In response, the government installed about 1,450 police outside the building.

Gloria Gallardo, one of the most outspoken opposition members of Congress, said if Mr Cevallos convened the government-backed legislature with substitutes, "it will be a caricature, because it will not be a proper check on the government".

At his weekly radio broadcast last week, Mr Correa attacked the opposition legislators. "If these so-called 'fathers of the country' have any dignity left, they should go home quietly and ask the people for forgiveness," he said.

Mr Correa's struggle with Congress is a gamble. On one hand, the body is very unpopular, with approval ratings of about 13 per cent, while there is much support for political reform. On the other hand, the legislature has deposed two of Mr Correa's recent predecessors, and the opposition is experienced and tenacious.

Critics of Mr Correa accuse him of provoking the crisis to shore up his popularity ahead of the referendum and subsequent elections to the constituent assembly later this year.

Mr Correa will have been studying the opinion polls: his approval rating is falling at a rate of about 2 percentage points a month, according to Cedatos, a pollster.

Patrick Esteruelas, an analyst at the Eurasia group in New York, noted that Mr Correa could emerge stronger from the chaos in the short term, but that there could be "negative medium and long-term ramifications".

Dismissed congressmen injured by stone-throwing demonstrators in Ecuador

People's Daily Online, March 15, 2007.
Two former Ecuadorian lawmakers Thursday were injured by stones thrown by demonstrators, intensifying a battle between legislators and the nation's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).
Gloria Gallardo and Silka Sanchez are two of the 57 opposition members ousted from the 100-strong Congress by the TSE last Wednesday for blocking proposals for a referendum on President Rafael Correa's planned constitutional reforms.
Sanchez and Gallardo are members of the Renewing National Institutional Action Party (Prian), whose candidate, multi-millionaire Alvaro Noboa, lost the presidential election to Correa last year.
The demonstrators also smashed the windows of their cars and damaged equipment belonging to a local television crew before police dispersed them with tear gas.
Ecuador's two main cities, Quito, the capital, and Guayaquil, the largest city, have witnessed marches supporting Correa's Constituent Assembly, a proposed body sought by the president to rewrite the nation's constitution.
Elsewhere Thursday, Federico Perez, a dismissed congressman from the Prian party, formally resigned from his post in the government, saying that he is unsatisfied with both the opposition and government, and would never return to politics.
The TSE is also meeting over possible punishment for a judge in the coastal province of Manabi, who supported a motion granting a reprieve to the sacked deputies.
On Wednesday, Correa announced he would study the possibility of calling an extraordinary session to swear in substitutes for the 57 sacked deputies, without whom the Congress does not have the quorum to make decisions.
Jaime Velasco, president of Ecuadorian Supreme Court, called for negotiations to solve the crisis.

Ecuador: Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?

Stratfor, March 13, 2007

Summary

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide whether to reinstate 57 legislators dismissed March 7 by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This leaves the country with an unresolved crisis regarding legitimate authority -- a situation in which the military could intervene.

Analysis

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide on the reinstatement of 57 legislators dismissed six days earlier by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The constitutional court realized that without President Rafael Correa's support, its decision would not matter except as a possible trigger for massive protests. The court announced that the motion filed lacked the required signatures from a congressional majority, but that it could be considered if it is refiled with the signatures.

If the Constitutional Tribunal had ruled on reinstating the 57 legislators, the result could have been chaos on the streets. There would be large demonstrations, led in part by the indigenous groups of the highlands, echoing Correa's demand that the ruling be ignored. Traditionally, at such inflection points in Ecuadorian politics, the military steps in. Since those demonstrations did not materialize, however, the military is waiting to see whether the ongoing crisis reaches a boiling point.

The situation began March 7, when Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal fired 57 of the 100 members of the country's unicameral Congress, based on allegations of interfering with a constitutional referendum after those 57 attempted to dismiss a majority of the tribunal's members. Correa announced March 8 that if the constitutional court were to reinstate the legislators, he would consider the ruling invalid and call for a popular uprising against the decision. In other words, Correa is de facto dismissing the judicial and legislative branches of Ecuador's government and making himself the sole authority. Strengthened by widespread public support (though it dropped from the 70 percent range in January to around 65 percent in early March, according to polling firm Cedatos/Gallup), Correa has decided to descend the slippery slope from populist to authoritarian.

Ecuador has seen its share of coups, with the military sometimes supporting the sitting president and sometimes overthrowing him, but usually acting decisively either way "for the good of the country." This case is a tricky one for the military, however. Correa is clearly dismantling the government's checks and balances and alienating the country's commercial class. On the other hand, he is very popular. It is not clear whether the military could control the public backlash that would occur if it tried to overthrow Correa, and it probably does not have the stomach to try at this point.

The military appears to have a cordial relationship with Correa thus far -- Correa has even approved military pay raises -- and is not likely to rock the boat. However, if the opposition is able to gather strength, the military will have to make tough decisions.

Many of the deposed congressmen gathered March 13 at a Marriott hotel in Ecuador. Several supported an announcement by Gloria Gallardo, a dismissed legislator from the opposition Institutional Renewal Party of National Action, who said that democracy in Ecuador is dead and Correa has become a dictator. Furthermore, Pedro Almeida of the Patriotic Society Party called for an extraordinary Congress to meet in Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil, located in the west coast lowlands where the opposition movement is based. If opposition political parties and businessmen can create a well-organized grassroots movement to support the deposed legislators' reinstatement, popular unrest could become significant.

Any such organized opposition would shrink Correa's window of opportunity for attempting to restore a semblance of legitimacy to his decisions by getting Congress to function again. Correa would do this by replacing some of the dismissed congressmen with preselected alternates loyal to him. Even if Correa's popularity holds above the 60 percent mark -- which is likely -- the country is now dangerously divided by competing claims to legitimate authority. Leading up to Ecuador's April 15 referendum on the formation of a constitutional assembly, the military could face increasing pressure to intervene before, after, or during the outbreak of violent demonstrations regarding the dismissed legislators.

The least stable -- and almost certainly bloody -- outcome would be an attempt to oust Correa. The most stable outcome, and still the most likely, is that Correa will keep the military's support, suppress the opposition, continue his constitutional reform, and eventually restore a veneer of respectability to the other branches of government by repopulating Congress with his supporters and committing to honor all court decisions under the new constitution. Such a turn of events might help preserve domestic tranquility, but it would also push Correa further toward becoming an imitation of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Ecuador Court Rules Deputies Stay Out

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) In a surprise decision Tuesday, Ecuador s Constitutional Court refused to hear the petition for reinstatement by 57 deputies dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE).

The request, presented by Congress leader Jorge Cevallos, enraged the right-wing legislators who had been dismissed by the TSE for attempting to obstruct the referendum on the Constituent Assembly.

According to judicial sources, the Assessment and Receipt Committee determined that, under the Constitution, Cevallos claim failed to fulfil the requisite of support by the majority in Congress.

Just before the decision, a group of dismissed legislators from PRIAN (Institutional Renovator) and Patriotic Society confronted the police and violently entered the congressional building, but Cevallos determined there was not a quorum and suspended today s session.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people have gathered outside the Legislature to guard it and demand expulsion of the dismissed legislators.

President of La Sierra Indigenous Nationalities Confederation, Humberto Cholango, warned that "if the dismissed deputies attempt to return to their seats, this movement and all the people will rise up," because the people are determined to have a Constituent Assembly, he concluded.

Ecuador Assembly, Tooth and Nail

Quito, Mar 12 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador will host this week national protests in defense of the Constituency Assembly and to stop conservative tactics to reinstate 57 legislators removed from office for obstructing a referendum to give that assemblage full power.

The protests will be held at several cities after President Rafael Correa called on the weekend to start a "peaceful resistance" to contend those opposing the Constituency Assembly.

The conservative parties in Congress are Renovador Institucional, Social Cristiano and Christian Democrat.

Movimiento Popular Democratico (MPD), along workers, students, Indigenous people and members of the government Alianza PAIS, announced protests in Guayaquil, south east the capital.

Cesar Rodriguez, regional coordinator for Alianza PAIS, said the protests start the campaign in favor of the referendum slated for April 15 in demand of an Assembly with full power.

Like Rodriguez, Humberto Cholango, leader of the Confederacion de Nacionalidades Indigenas de la Sierra (Ecuarunari), stressed the need to defend the Assembly to change the future of Ecuador.

Ecuador Clears Way for Assembly

Quito, Mar 9 (Prensa Latina) The People’s will triumphed in Ecuador over the “political mafia,” said Rafael Correa in a speech after removal of most of the Congress for interfering in a Constituent Assembly referendum.

Correa added that these groups were mistaken about the decision of the Ecuadorian people to seek transformations in the country.

“Noble people, proud people, sovereign people are winning over those who intended to dominate us and treat us like slaves. They believed that a popular government was going to submit to threats by the usual power elite,” the president stated.

The Electoral Court decided to remove 57 of the 100 hundred members of the single-chamber Congress for interfering in the call for a Constituent assembly referendum, mostly Institutional Renewal Party of National Action and other opposition parties.

This occurred after they had decided to substitute the president of the Electoral Court, Jorge Acosta, in reprisal for calling a referendum on April 15 over a Constituent Assembly with full powers to rewrite the constitution.

Chancellor Maria Espinosa rejected criticism of the decision recalling that the president had close to 90 percent support of the Ecuadorian people.

Correa warned that the popular consultation and the Constituent Assembly with full powers “are irreversible.”

Ecuador Set to Hold Popular Referendum

Quito, Mar 1 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador s TSE (Election Supreme Court) decided on Thursday to hold a popular plebiscite on April 15 for the establishment of a National Constituent Assembly with full powers.

TSE President Jorge Acosta pointed out that people would be called on radio and television tonight to participate in the referendum, adding that the TSE is responding to a demand from the Ecuadorian people.

The decision to call a referendum was made after the Economy Ministry transferred 16 million dollars for expenses, and the presidency of the Republic handed over an amended statute of the Constituent Assembly.

Acosta will also announce the Assembly's rules, which will be included on the ballot, which will have only one question: "Do you approve of calling and establishing a National Constituent Assembly to draw up a new Constitution?"

TSE spokespersons said that four out of seven members supported the call for a referendum. They were the representatives of the Democratic Left, Alianza Pais, Roldosista and Patriotic Society parties.

Those against were the right-wing organizations Social Christian and Institutional Renovating parties. The representative of the Democratic Christian Party abstained from voting.

Ecuadorian Constitutional Reform: A Bend or a Break?

Stratfor, Feb 28, 2007
Summary
Ecuadorians are likely to approve an April 15 referendum to revise the constitution. President Rafael Correa aims to use the constitutional reform process to consolidate his power and kick the country's entrenched party elite out of Congress. With a weak judiciary and an unpopular legislature, Correa could become nearly as powerful in Ecuador as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has become in his country. However, opposition groups appear to be stronger in Ecuador than in Venezuela, so compromises are more likely. Correa's presidency -- which probably will last longer than most recent Ecuadorian presidencies -- is a boon to Chavez's regional ambitions, but Ecuador is peripheral to the region and the overall effects of its domestic politics will be limited.

Analysis
Ecuadorians will vote in a popular referendum April 15 on whether to create an assembly for constitutional reform. Since constitutional reform was one of President Rafael Correa's central campaign promises when he was elected in the November 2006 runoff, the referendum is likely to have enough public support to pass.

Ecuador seems to have caught the constitutional reform fever spreading in Latin American countries within Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's sphere of influence. Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia are all taking steps to amend their constitutions, and Nicaragua might join in. In each country, the rationale for reform is that the current structure favors the elite and foreign business interests at the expense of the general population. Meanwhile, in the grip of populist socialist ideology and charismatic leadership, these countries are edging toward increasingly authoritarian regimes. Though Bolivia and Ecuador broadly support Chavez's regional ambitions, they are much less likely to succumb to a concentration of unchecked power.

Concerns that Correa wishes to expand executive power at the expense of the judiciary and legislature are not mere right-wing paranoia. The judicial and legislative branches in Ecuador have become so discredited that the idea of reform without their constraint is very popular. Judicial appointment processes have deviated from the law that authorizes them, and competing judges are issuing more frequent conflicting rulings. Furthermore, according to a Feb. 15 Cedatos/Gallup poll, Correa's approval rating is just above 70 percent, while Congress, opposition groups' main vehicle for action, is polling at 8 percent. Though Ecuador most likely will bend toward Bolivarianism under Correa's leadership, it is possible that the president will override Congress and undertake a more dramatic break with Ecuador's current governmental structure and political elite.

Correa wanted Ecuador's referendum to take place sooner -- March 18 -- and for the resultant constitutional assembly to have unlimited powers, including the power to dismiss current members of Congress. Unsurprisingly, Congress denied the assembly such powers in the same vote that set the referendum for April 15. The 100-member body voted 57-1 (most of the opposition walked out of the vote in protest of the constitutionality of the proposed assembly), indicating that though almost 60 percent of Congress supports Correa, even that portion does not fully support him. Signaling that he does not intend to be deterred by a deliberative body that requires compromise, Correa threatened Feb. 17 to resign if his agenda does not receive support from at least 70 percent of the constitutional assembly. This is likely a bluff, however, and Congress apparently aims to drive a hard bargain. On Feb. 26, a coalition of congressmen from the National Action Institutional Renewal Party, Patriotic Society Party (PSP), Social Christian Party and Christian Democratic Union announced its intent to further restrict the powers of a constituent assembly. Though confirming a new attorney general, these legislators made statements to the effect that any decisions related to altering Ecuador's companies law, judicial appointments or the formation of assemblies must be brought before the legislature for debate and a vote.

Correa has not announced many details regarding the modifications he proposes, but he has an easy case to make for reforming some aspects of the constitution. Ecuador is hardly a model of effective checks and balances; the most obvious structural problem is that the Supreme Court's members are elected by the Supreme Court itself (though this did not prevent Congress from appointing an entirely new court in 2004). Also, presidents cannot serve two consecutive terms (although this has hardly been an issue lately, considering Ecuador has had eight presidents since 2006). Ecuador also has a unicameral legislature; though this is not necessarily bad in and of itself, it can exacerbate abuses of power and is an easier scapegoat for executive complaints than a bicameral legislature.

If Correa's objective were only to improve the structure of the government, it might be welcome. But his rhetoric suggests that his fundamental objective is to remove a semi-entrenched political class (the "Party-ocracy," as he calls it) from power, inevitably expanding his own power in the process. This players-based approach is an alarming motivation for legal reform, and even more so for constitutional reform.

As long as Congress is not disbanded and the press is not curtailed, Ecuador is not on the brink of becoming another Venezuela. For example, Venezuela's legislature voted Jan. 31 to give Chavez total special powers; in contrast, Ecuador's legislature denied granting similar powers to a constitutional assembly -- and that was the part of the legislature that supports Correa's general direction. Furthermore, in March 2005 Venezuela reformed its criminal code to increase penalties for "insulting" public authorities and institutions; Ecuador has not yet attempted any such infringement upon freedom of the press, and there are no indications that such moves are on the horizon.

Correa needs to navigate between a system badly in need of reform, a public primed for change, deeply concerned business interests and the temptation to push the limits of power consolidation. Indigenous groups such as Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, as well as former President Lucio Gutierrez, leader of the PSP, support constitutional reform. PSP is not monolithically behind Correa, however, and many of its members have voiced concerns that Chavez might rule Ecuador through Correa as a proxy.

This is similar to accusations leveled against Bolivian President Evo Morales. Correa and Morales both have good reason to distance themselves from perceptions of being Venezuelan puppets; but such perceptions do not play well domestically, and burning bridges with leaders other than Chavez could prove dangerous if Chavez cannot be Morales and Correa's eternal patron. And with oil prices falling and Venezuela's hostility to foreign investors impeding expanded oil production, Venezuela increasingly will have to use its cash to solve problems at home rather than renting friends abroad.

Constitutional reform is a dangerous moment for Ecuadorian politics. However, the country's still-vigorous opposition and free press, plus the fact that Correa does not seem to have the same appetite for alienating the United States as Chavez, will make it difficult for power in Ecuador to fall into one man's hands. If Correa chooses to play hardball, however, the deck is stacked in his favor; the judiciary is weak, Congress is unpopular and public sentiment is behind him.

Whatever the outcome of the constitutional reforms, it appears that, geopolitically, Chavez has secured an ally -- and U.S. ally Colombia is flanked on both sides by a reinvigorated Bolivarian revolution. This could particularly concern Colombia since border tensions with Ecuador have escalated over the past few months -- including Ecuador's decision to open a new port authority on the border, and Ecuadorian threats to have its air force escort Colombian crop-dusting planes to the ground if they get too close.

Correa will take steps from time to time to assert his independence from Chavez, but Chavez clearly inspires him, and the two leaders are unlikely to disagree on major regional policy initiatives. Nonetheless, Ecuador does not hold a geographically central position on the continent like Bolivia, nor is it an economic force to be reckoned with like Brazil. Ecuador's momentum will help keep Chavez's regional ambitions alive, but it will not be a major player in the region.

Slight Drop for Correa, Congress Low in Ecuador

Feb 27, 2007
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Public support for Rafael Correa fell slightly in Ecuador, according to a poll by Cedatos/Gallup. 71 per cent of respondents in the South American nation approve of their president’s performance, down two points in a month.

Support is dramatically low for the country’s National Congress, at eight per cent. In January, the legislative body was approved by just 13 per cent of respondents.

Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Álvaro Noboa of the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state on Jan. 15. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In his inauguration speech, Correa expressed his support for changing the country’s Constitution. On Feb 13, the National Congress approved to schedule a nationwide referendum for Apr. 15. In this ballot, the people will be asked if they want the country’s Constitution to be re-written. If a majority votes in favour of forming a Constituent Assembly, a second vote—where Ecuadorians will elect the members of this legislative body—will take place within eight days.

On Feb. 17, Correa said he will resign from the presidency if his supporters fail to win control of the Constituent Assembly, adding, "My heart is not in power, it’s in service. If I am not going to be able to do that and be one more of a tonne of traitors and impostors that we have had in the presidency, believe me, I would rather go home."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Rafael Correa’s performance as president?

	Feb. 2007	Jan. 2007
Approve	71%	73%
Disapprove	25%	13%
No opinion	5%	14%

Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Congress?

	Feb. 2007	Jan. 2007
Approve	8%	13%
Disapprove	90%	68%
No opinion	2%	19%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,633 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Feb. 12 to Feb. 15, 2007. Margin of error is 5 per cent.