Ecuador President's Party Seen Winning Control Of Legislature

QUITO (Dow Jones) April 7--Leftist Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa's political movement is expected to win control of the country's new legislature, new polls show.

A nationwide Cedatos-Gallup International poll of 2,824 people showed 54% of Ecuadorians voting for Correa's Alianza Pais party in the April 26 election.

Correa is seen easily winning the presidency in the vote, which was called after Ecuadorians approved a new constitution last year, written by Correa's allies.

Some 10.5 million Ecuadorians will vote for president, the entire 124-seat National Assembly and local authorities.

The Cedatos-Gallup poll, which had a margin of error of 5 percentage points, showed 14% voter support for representatives from Sociedad Patriotica of Correa's opponent, former ousted President Lucio Gutierrez.

A poll by Santiago Perez Investigation y Estudios said that Alianza Pais could obtain 62 of the 124 seats in the National Assembly, while Sociedad Patriotica could win at least 12 seats. The poll of 1,500 people had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The remaining seats in the assembly will likely be distributed among the party of banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, whom Correa defeated in the 2006 election; supporters of former president Abdala Bucaram, the Social Christian party, of deceased former President Leon Febres Cordero; and other minority groups.

To capture the presidency in the first round of voting, Correa must win at least 40% of the valid votes by a margin of more than 10 percentage points over his closest rival, otherwise, a runoff ballot would take place in June.

Carlos Cordova, of Cedatos-Gallup, said Correa is unlikely to have a majority as he did in the assembly that wrote Ecuador's new constitution.

In the 2007 Constituent Assembly elections, Correa's party won 80 of the 130 seats.

Gandhi Espinosa, from Perfiles de Opinion, said mainly in small provinces people choose well-known local leaders with concrete proposals for their regions rather than the general proposal of change that the government offers.

Of the 124 assembly members, 15 will be national, 103 provincial and six delegates will represent citizens living abroad.

Local analysts have said if Correa's party does win control of the assembly it would be fragile, because of some party infighting and desertion.