The people of Ecuador are rising up to refound their country as a pluri-national homeland for all. This inspiring movement, with Ecuador's indigenous peoples at its heart, is part of the revolution spreading across the Americas, laying the groundwork for a new, fairer, world. Ecuador Rising aims to bring news and analysis of events unfolding in Ecuador to english speakers.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Correa Allies Nowhere Near Majority in Ecuador

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) September 19, 2007 - Candidates loyal to Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa are leading in the race to form the country’s Constituent Assembly but would fall short in their bid to secure a majority of the mandates, according to a poll by Cedatos-Gallup. A prospective tally of seats for each party suggests the Movement Country (MP) will win between 44 and 53 seats in the 130-member ad-hoc legislative body, slightly up since late August.

The Patriotic Society Party (PSP) of former president Lucio Gutiérrez is second with 17 to 20 seats, followed by the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) of losing presidential candidate Álvaro Noboa with 11 to 14 seats, the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) with eight to 10 seats, the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD) with six or seven seats, and the Social Christian Party (PSC) with five or six seats.

Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Noboa in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In his inauguration speech in January, Correa expressed his support for changing the country’s Constitution. On Apr. 15, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has scheduled an election to choose 130 members for the Constituent Assembly for Sept. 30. Correa has vowed to step down if his supporters fail to win a majority of the seats.

On Sept. 13, TSE president Jorge Acosta said the upcoming vote is extremely challenging for the electoral body, since 3,225 candidates and 490 different political parties are participating. Acosta declared: "This is the most complex, complicated and difficult process Ecuador has ever faced in its history as a republic. For us the process is a struggle because we have to guarantee its transparency, ethics and efficiency."

Polling Data

Voting intention - Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly
Note: Interviews conducted in 20 of Ecuador’s 22 provinces were reviewed to come up with a prospective tally of seats for each party.

Sept. 9

Aug. 30

Movement Country (MP)



Patriotic Society Party (PSP)



Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN)



Ethical and Democratic Network (RED)



Popular Democratic Movement (MPD)



Social Christian Party (PSC)



Source: Cedatos/Gallup
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 3,116 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Sept. 4 to Sept. 9, 2007. Margin of error is 5 per cent.

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