guardian.co.uk, Friday 24 April 2009
Ecuador's president Rafael Correa is poised to win re-election on Sunday, quite a feat in a politically turbulent country that's run through eight presidents in the past 13 years.
Correa, however, has loftier ambitions than simply holding on to power.
He's set on remaking his poor Andean nation, which is both the world's biggest banana exporter and the smallest member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries oil cartel. Nearly 40% of Ecuador's population lives in poverty.
"This citizen's revolution is moving forward, and nobody will stop it!" Correa shouted at a recent campaign stop in Guayaquil, his hometown.
A socialist who's close to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Correa is redistributing wealth from the rich to the poor, extending state control over the economy and encouraging more investment by Ecuadorean companies at the expense of foreign investment. However, an economy sliding into recession following the steep drop in oil prices will test his ability to achieve those goals.
Correa has acted boldly in his two years as president.
A 46-year-old who has a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois, he's defaulted on a portion of Ecuador's debt, saying it was contracted illegally years ago.
Correa has angered US policymakers by refusing to renew a US anti-drug air base in Ecuador and by expelling two US diplomats who he said were meddling in the country's politics.
Originally elected in late 2006 with no supporters in Ecuador's congress, Correa won a public vote to rewrite the constitution more to his liking. His supporters are likely to win a majority of seats in congress. This would mark the first time since the return of democracy in 1979 that a president enjoyed a congressional majority.
Correa enjoys unprecedented popularity. He's spent liberally on behalf of the poor, including two increases in the minimum wage. His government has built or refurbished hundreds of schools and local health care clinics.
Correa's popularity has kept his two main opponents in Sunday's election, former president Lucio Gutierrez and perennial candidate Alvaro Noboa, from gaining much traction. Few analysts expect them to hold Correa below 50% to force a runoff election with the second-place finisher.
Correa's popularity also has protected him against revelations that a then-deputy minister of internal security met several times with a top official of the Farc, Colombia's biggest Marxist rebel group, and then was arrested for ties to drug traffickers.
Turnout is expected to be high: around 70%, since in theory, voting is mandatory. The first exit polls will be broadcast just after polls close in the evening.
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