Pro-Correa Party Strong in Ecuadorian Race

(Angus Reid Global Monitor, September 13, 2007 - A pro-government organization is ahead in the early stages of Ecuador’s latest political campaign, according to a poll by Cedatos-Gallup. A prospective tally of seats for each party suggests the Movement Country (MP) will secure between 42 and 51 seats in the Constituent Assembly.

The Patriotic Society Party (PSP) of former president Lucio Gutiérrez is second with 13 to 15 seats, followed by the conservative Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN) of losing presidential candidate Álvaro Noboa with 11 to 14 seats, the Ethical and Democratic Network (RED) with eight to 10 seats, the Popular Democratic Movement (MPD) with seven seats, and the Social Christian Party (PSC) with five or six seats.

Rafael Correa, a former finance minister, ran for president as an independent leftist under the Alliance Country (AP) banner. In November 2006, Correa defeated Noboa in a run-off with 56.69 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Ecuador’s head of state in January. Correa’s party nominated no candidates to the National Congress.

In his inauguration speech in January, Correa expressed his support for changing the country’s Constitution. On Apr. 15, Ecuadorian citizens participated in a referendum to enact a Constituent Assembly. The president’s proposal was backed by 82 per cent of all voters. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has scheduled an election to choose the members of the Constituent Assembly for Sept. 30.

On Aug. 13, more than 3,000 candidates began campaigning for a seat in the 130-member Constituent Assembly. 67.2 per cent of respondents have a positive feeling on the ability of the Constituent Assembly to deliver change, while 32.8 per cent hold negative views.

On Sept. 6, Noboa challenged Correa to a debate, saying, "Have the courage to defend (socialism) in a public meeting, in front of all Ecuadorians, so they can become aware that you—the communists—believe that families should be dismantled and that children, at the age of three, should be placed under the purview of the state."

On Sept. 10, Correa repeated his vow to step down if the opposition wins a majority of seats in the Constituent Assembly, adding, "I’d rather go home."

Polling Data

Voting intention - Ecuador’s Constituent Assembly

Note: Interviews conducted in 17 of Ecuador’s 22 provinces were reviewed to come up with a prospective tally of seats for each party.

Movement Country (MP)	42-51
Patriotic Society Party (PSP)	13-15
Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN)	11-14
Ethical and Democratic Network (RED)	8-10
Popular Democratic Movement (MPD)	7
Social Christian Party (PSC)	5-6

Do you have positive or negative feelings on the ability of the Constituent Assembly to deliver change?

Positive feelings	67.2%
Negative feelings	32.8%

Source: Cedatos/Gallup

Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,882 Ecuadorian adults, conducted from Aug. 24 to Aug. 30, 2007. Margin of error is 5 per cent.