Election gives Chávez an ally

Guillermo I. Martinez

Columnist, South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com

September 20, 2007

Ecuador's President Rafael Correa was one of the last to join Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez's 21st century socialism team. Yet, with all the difficulties Evo Morales in Bolivia and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua have encountered, Correa may soon become the Venezuelan president's most advanced disciple.

On Sept. 30, voters in Ecuador will go to the polls to elect a new constitutional assembly. Polls and politicians differ on the winning margin. Correa says his private polls tell him the initiative will carry over 80 percent of the vote. Some private pollsters say that ,with over 50 percent of the voters still saying they are undecided, it is difficult to predict the outcome.

Still, few if any, doubt that Correa will carry the day. Journalists and analysts agree that the handsome and often controversial president will win easily over Ecuador's considerably weakened political parties campaigning against him.

That election victory means that in October Ecuador will install a new constitutional asembly that will dissolve Congress and create a new judicial and economic system in the country in line with the one set up in Venezuela by Chávez.

Despite having created a constitutional assembly in Bolivia, almost a year ago, Morales has been unable to move forward on his efforts to create another socialist Bolivarian government, as Chávez likes to call his brand of socialism. Morales has been bogged down by serious regional battles within Bolivia. Some now doubt that he will be able to overcome his opponents and impose his will.

In Nicaragua, Ortega has not even begun to try and change the country's system of government. Conditions there are not ripe for the type of change Chávez wants.

But in Ecuador, Correa has moved ahead much farther and much faster than anyone expected for a president who, when elected, did not even have a political party or candidates running for Congress. He has imposed his will with the same group of Indian activists that have run so many previous presidents out of office.

Correa, much like Chávez, does not hide his intentions. Once the constitutional assembly enacts a new constitution, he expects it to give the state far greater power over the individual. He has already notified the United States that he wants it to abandon the naval base in Manta, from where American planes monitor drug routes in Colombia.

Ecuador's president also voices his displeasure constantly at the role of the press. He objects to having most of the television and radio stations in the country in hands of private enterprises. He says that he does not believe it is appropriate for five of the country's six private television networks to be owned by banking enterprises, and he says that newspapers are clearly opposed to his government.

Everything Correa says closely resembles the rhetoric of Chávez and Morales. He seeks total control of government and of the country and is likely to achieve both.

Not everything is in Correa's favor. Despite having sufficient oil to export, Ecuador does not have the in-country facilities to refine it. Thus, ironically, oil at over $70 a barrel hurts the economy of Ecuador. The country must pay the higher prices for refined gasoline and gas. Furthermore, Correa is still without a well-structured political party supporting him as Chávez has in Venezuela, or a strong popular movement that gives him its unquestioned loyalty.

Finally, Ecuador does not have the economic resources that Venezuela has or the gas reserves of Bolivia. Ecuador's economy is growing at a rate of 3.4 percent, less than half that of neighboring Peru, its southern neighbor who is sticking with a more traditional free enterprise economic model.

The middle class in Ecuador is scared of the process and of its likely outcome. But the country's political parties are greatly discredited, and will probably not be able to mount an effective campaign against the president.

Despite the forces stacked against him, Correa is likely to cobble together a majority in the constitutional assembly to be elected Sept. 30. The force of his personality alone may give him that majority, albeit by a smaller margin than the one that elected him president a little over a year ago.

And when he does, watch out! Chávez will finally have an ally with the power to govern in his image in another South American country.

Guillermo I. Martínez is a journalist living in South Florida. He may be reached at guimar123@gmail.com.