Ecuador's Correa short of assembly majority- poll

By Alonso Soto

QUITO, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa's party will win the most seats in a Sept. 30 election for a special assembly to rewrite the constitution, but will fail to clinch an outright majority, a poll showed on Sunday.

The Cedatos-Gallup survey showed Correa's Alianza Pais party would win 42 to 51 seats in the 130-member assembly, short of the 66 votes needed to approve constitutional changes in the legislative body.

Correa, a former economy minister, has vowed to quit if he does not secure an absolute majority in the assembly to promote his leftist agenda in the Andean nation, where many want an end to the political instability that has helped topple three presidents in a decade.

Foreign investors are watching the election closely, worrying a decisive win could embolden Correa, who has pledged to overhaul the country's foreign debt and renegotiate oil contracts.

Still, more than half of Ecuadoreans are undecided, the poll said, confused by the myriad of candidates who range from the wife of a toppled president to a Roman Catholic priest.

The survey showed parties sympathetic with Correa could secure as many as 17 seats in the assembly. But those parties are not expected to support all of Correa's proposed constitutional reforms.

The party of former President Lucio Gutierrez, an opposition leader, could win 14 to 16 seats, the poll said. The party of Correa's former presidential rival, Alvaro Noboa, would follow with as many as 14 seats. Both oppose Correa's reform agenda.

Correa, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, was elected last year on pledges to challenge the country's political elites, which many Ecuadoreans blame for political chaos and corruption.

His popularity has dropped 17 points since he took office in January to 56 percent in August due to a corruption scandal involving his former economy minister and his confrontational demeanor, according to Cedatos.

The Cedatos survey, conducted earlier this week, interviewed 2,882 people in 17 of the country's 22 provinces and had a margin of error of 5 percent.

For more details on the survey please click on the following page: http://www.cedatos.com.ec/