Mining Projects in Ecuador Causing “Civil Wars”

UpsideDownWorld
Written by Cyril Mychalejko
Wednesday, 21 March 2007
Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa announced last week that he would rework mining and oil deals.
"The mining problem is extremely grave, and we have areas where we are on the verge of a civil war," said Correa.
Canada’s Ascendant Copper could see its project in Intag threatened. The company’s operations in the area, which according to human rights lawyers and organizations has been tainted by human rights abuses and paramilitary tactics , could be the first foreign mining casualty under the Correa administration.
"We have not received any benefits from this (mining); neither the State nor the people, and that will have to be taken down," said Correa.

Ecuador leader sides against Chevron

BusinessWeek. 21 March, 2007.
QUITO, Ecuador
Ecuador's new leftist president voiced his support for the plaintiffs in a contamination lawsuit against U.S. oil company Chevron Corp. for allegedly dumping billions of gallons of waste in the country's Amazon jungle.
In a statement Tuesday, President Rafael Correa, who took office Jan. 15, said his government supports the "affected populations" and would help the plaintiffs collect evidence against San Ramon, California-based Chevron.
"We will not allow more pillaging, neither of our environment nor of our people," Correa said in the statement, after meeting with plaintiff's attorneys, the environment minister and other officials.
The lawsuit, representing 30,000 Amazon Indians and settlers, opened in Ecuador in October 2003 after a decade of winding through U.S. courts.
It alleges that Texaco Petroleum Co. -- which merged with Chevron in 2001 -- dumped more than 18 billion gallons of oily wastewater from three decades of drilling, and demands $6 billion in damages.
Chevron has denied the allegations, saying Texaco followed Ecuadorean environmental laws and then spent $40 million on a cleanup.
Chevron's lawyer in Quito, Rodrigo Perez, said the president should not get involved in the case.
Last month, Chevron representative Jaime Varela told a news conference that the company will "at no point" settle out of court.
The case is the first time that a foreign oil company has been subjected to Ecuadorean jurisdiction for allegedly damaging the environment.

Ecuador Needs Radical Changes, Correa

Quito, Mar 21 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador needs deep, radical and fast changes of the current structure, a social revolution, not mild changes, said president Rafael Correa.
The Ecuadorean leader presided the cabinet social branch meeting and outlined the Development Program for 2007, that will focus on poverty fighting by generating capacities, social protection and economic inclusion.
To generate capacities means opening access to basic services and providing quality education, health care, housing and social protection, said Correa.
In this yer plan social protection involves recognizing the rights of the poor and vulnerable sectors to enjoy state protection and aid, while economic inclusion means creating jobs and improving income.
The meeting was attended also by the general secretaries for Public Administration and Planning, Vinicio Alvarado and Fander Falcon, and Economy Vice Minister Hugo Jacome.

Ecuador's Congress swears in 21 alternate lawmakers to achieve quorum amid political crisis

IHT, Mar 20, 2007
QUITO, Ecuador: Ecuador's constitutional crisis took a new twist as alternate lawmakers were escorted into Congress under the cover of darkness and sworn in to replace some of the legislators fired by the country's highest electoral court.

The 21 alternate lawmakers were shuttled to the congressional building before dawn Tuesday as hundreds of national police stood watch, allowing the 100-seat unicameral legislature to begin a session with a quorum of 55 lawmakers for the first time in two weeks.

The crisis deepened in early March when a majority of congressmen voted to oust the president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for approving President Rafael Correa's version of an April 15 referendum plan on the need for a new constitution. The tribunal responded by dismissing 57 lawmakers, accusing them of trying to block the referendum.

Correa, a leftist whose party holds no seats in the current Congress, is pushing for a new charter to limit the power of the country's traditional political parties, which he blames for the country's corruption and political instability. Ecuador has had eight presidents in the last decade.

Correa has acknowledged that administration officials met with groups of alternate congressmen to encourage them to take up the posts left by the dismissal of the regular legislators, but it is unclear what affect the alternate lawmakers will have on Correa's influence in Congress. The 21 alternate lawmakers installed Tuesday belonged to the three major opposition parties.

Congress president Jorge Cevallos said the installation of the lawmakers was intended to "overcome the political crisis."

The fired congressmen, however, immediately condemned the alternate congressmen as traitors.

"They have betrayed their political party," Alfonso Harb, an ousted Social Christian lawmaker said, referring to three alternates from his party who took the oath of office. "We don't recognize the legitimacy of today's session."

Although the 21 alternate lawmakers allow for a 51-member quorum in Congress, many congressional decisions need a two-thirds majority — or 67 votes — to pass. That means if the remaining 36 alternate lawmakers are not sworn in, Congress may not be able to pass important legislation.

Cevallos said he hopes to have those alternates installed by next week. If not, he said he will call on the second alternates.

The alternate lawmakers were elected at the same time as the regular congressmen, and are supposedly hand-picked by the lawmakers they stand in for and represent the same political parties.

Alvaro Noboa, the billionaire banana baron defeated in November's presidential election runoff, accused Correa of offering the alternate lawmakers money or other favors to get them to take up their posts in Congress, which the president has called "a sewer of corruption."

Noboa said it was an example of the "the system of the briefcase man" at work, Ecuadorean slang for political bribes.

Correa's administration has denied bribing the alternate lawmakers.

"This is not a good start," Cevallos said of the substitute lawmakers' sneaking into Congress before dawn. "They should come in through the front door. No one has any reason to hide."

Former President Lucio Gutierrez also criticized the alternate congressmen for entering the building with police protection.

"What kind of democracy is this?" said Gutierrez, who was forced from office in April 2005 by Congress amid street protests. "This is a de facto government that intimidates, that persecutes people."

Dozens of angry protesters gathered in front of the congressional building early Tuesday, most in support of an assembly to write a new constitution.

Ecuador Congress Resumes Sessions

Quito, Mar 20 (Prensa Latina) The Congress of Ecuador resumed its ordinary sessions after 13-day suspension due to maneuvering of 57 ex members dismissed.

After confirming attendance of 55 legislators, including 22 substitutes, Chairman Jorge Cevallos ordered to resume work.

Cevallos called his colleagues to work in favor of the country and admitted to a crisis as Congress stopped work since March 7 with the 57 dismissals.

The Supreme Election Court dismissed the group (conservatives) due to attempts to block the process started March 1 convening a poll for April 15.

The sessions were convened under tight security and some 1,000 Ecuadorians that rally outside Congress in support of the government and the substitute legislators.

Ecuador Congress replaces lawmakers, convenes

By Alexandra Valencia
QUITO, March 20 (Reuters) - Ecuador's Congress replaced fired lawmakers and convened on Tuesday in an apparent victory for President Rafael Correa over opposition legislators resisting his plans to curb their influence.
Correa, a left-winger elected in November, has been locked in a power struggle with lawmakers since March 7, when a court sacked 57 of them from the 100-member chamber for obstructing his plans for a referendum on rewriting the constitution.
The fired lawmakers had said they would seek to take their seats in the building, which was ringed by hundreds of police wielding batons to prevent a repeat of last week's clashes when opposition members tried to force their way inside.
But Congress President Jorge Cevallos on Tuesday swore in 21 substitutes and allowed the legislature to hold a session without the fired lawmakers.
"We will obey the will of the people," substitute lawmaker Cesar Alonso said. Congress needs at least 51 lawmakers to hold a session and 55 were present.
Correa was monitoring developments and "hopes that Congress will start working in line with the people's demands," a government spokeswoman said.
Elected in November, Correa is popular for promising to sweep away the influence of traditional political parties whom many Ecuadoreans blame for the instability that has ousted three presidents in the last decade. He wants an April 15 vote on holding a popular assembly to rewrite the constitution.
With his strongest opponents now out of Congress, Correa should be able to push ahead with his political proposals and key economic reforms, experts said.
"This is an evident victory for Correa... the opposition has lost a lot of power," said Simon Pachano, analyst with Ecuador's branch of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences. "The government also probably has struck a deal with the substitutes."
Correas opponents fear the U.S.-trained economist and former finance minister will seek to rewrite the constitution to strengthen presidential powers as his left-wing ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, did after his 1998 election.
Wall Street has been monitoring Ecuador's political developments closely after Correa promised to use his mandate to restructure bonds and rewrite foreign oil contracts in South America's fifth-largest crude producer.

Ecuador's warring congresses vie for control

Euro2day, Mar 20, 2007.

By Hal Weitzman in Caracas
Ecuador slipped further into political chaos on Tuesday, with the likely creation of rival pro- and anti-government legislatures, each claiming legitimacy under the constitution.

The institutional crisis – pitting all the main arms of government against each other – underlines the fragile state of democracy in Ecuador, one of the most politically unstable countries in South America.

One legislative body, including lawmakers who support president Rafael Correa, met under heavy guard in Congress.

The other, made up of 57 opposition legislators sacked after a fight with the country's judiciary, was expected to meet in northern Quito.

"If [the sacked members of Congress] meet elsewhere, it will be an illegitimate body, because those legislators were legally sanctioned," said Jorge Cevallos, the president of Congress, who appears to have switched loyalties from the opposition Prian party.

The situation follows electoral results last year that handed the presidency to Mr Correa, a radical leftwinger determined to enact sweeping political reform, but which gave control of Congress to his rivals.

Mr Correa has called for a referendum on April 15 on whether to convoke an assembly to rewrite the constitution. This month the legislature tried to delay the poll by sacking the head of the electoral court. The court deemed that move illegal and fired the 57 Congress members who supported it.

Mr Cevallos said he would instead convene the Congress with substitute deputies, elected last year in case members of Congress needed to be replaced. "With the substitutes we will have a quorum," he said.

If the opposition proceeds with its rival legislature, the country will be presented with two Congresses, both of which can claim electoral legitimacy and a quorum of at least 51 members.

The opposition lobbied substitutes and urged them not to attend the government-backed Congress. That tactic appeared to have failed on Tuesday, as 22 substitute deputies were ferried to Congress with an escort of hundreds of armed police.

The deposed politicians refused to outline their strategy, saying they feared they would be attacked by pro-government activists. They had threatened to try again to take up their seats in Congress, a move that resulted in violence last week. In response, the government installed about 1,450 police outside the building.

Gloria Gallardo, one of the most outspoken opposition members of Congress, said if Mr Cevallos convened the government-backed legislature with substitutes, "it will be a caricature, because it will not be a proper check on the government".

At his weekly radio broadcast last week, Mr Correa attacked the opposition legislators. "If these so-called 'fathers of the country' have any dignity left, they should go home quietly and ask the people for forgiveness," he said.

Mr Correa's struggle with Congress is a gamble. On one hand, the body is very unpopular, with approval ratings of about 13 per cent, while there is much support for political reform. On the other hand, the legislature has deposed two of Mr Correa's recent predecessors, and the opposition is experienced and tenacious.

Critics of Mr Correa accuse him of provoking the crisis to shore up his popularity ahead of the referendum and subsequent elections to the constituent assembly later this year.

Mr Correa will have been studying the opinion polls: his approval rating is falling at a rate of about 2 percentage points a month, according to Cedatos, a pollster.

Patrick Esteruelas, an analyst at the Eurasia group in New York, noted that Mr Correa could emerge stronger from the chaos in the short term, but that there could be "negative medium and long-term ramifications".

Ecuador police ring Congress to halt lawmakers

QUITO, March 20 (Reuters) - Hundreds of police ringed Ecuador's Congress on Tuesday to prevent fired lawmakers from entering the building as President Rafael Correa wrestled with legislators resisting his plans for broad political overhaul.
Fifty-seven lawmakers have rejected an election court decision to fire them for opposing Correa's plan for an April 15 referendum that could usher in constitutional reforms to curb the influence of Congress.
The 57 represent more than half of the 100-member Congress.
Some of the dismissed lawmakers threatened to break through a cordon of riot police armed with batons while other sacked legislators said they may try to hold a parallel session elsewhere in the capital.
But Ramsses Torres, a left-wing lawmaker sympathetic with Correa, said government supporters would hold a session on Tuesday with substitutes for the fired lawmakers. A group of substitute lawmakers entered Congress early on Tuesday.
Last week a group of sacked lawmakers scuffled with police in an attempt to enter the legislative building in a signal of more tensions in the politically unstable Andean nation, where three presidents have been toppled in the last decade.
Congress needs at least 51 lawmakers present to hold a session. The court issued its decision March 7.
Correa, a popular former finance minister elected in November, has backed the court ruling on sacking the congressmembers. He says the constitution must be rewritten to limit the influence of lawmakers whom many Ecuadoreans blame for instability and corruption.

Ecuador's power struggle

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

The Economist, Mar 20, 2007

The president is battling with opposition lawmakers

President Rafael Correa seems to have the upper hand in a major conflict with opposition legislators, following the ouster earlier in March of 57 lawmakers who resisted his plans to hold a referendum on calling a constituent assembly. However, the institutional crisis is growing, along with risks to governance and stability.

Following a decision by Mr Correa, approved by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on March 1st, to hold a national referendum on April 15th, opposition legislators attempted to block the poll with a series of political manoeuvres, including a vote to replace the head of the TSE. The TSE judges on March 7th ruled that vote invalid, and subsequently removed 57 lawmakers—more than half of the total of 100—who had backed it. They also stripped these legislators of their political rights for a year.

Not only did this leave parliamentary activity at a standstill. The showdown also triggered street protests involving indigenous groups, leftist political organisations, students and others who support the Correa administration’s reform plans. There has also been violence against some of the lawmakers who have resisted their dismissals and attempted to regain entry into the premises of the National Assembly.

The deposed lawmakers lost another legal battle on March 16th, when a higher court, the Constitutional Tribunal, rejected their request for an injunction against the firings. It is now uncertain whether they can continue to appeal their dismissals through legal means. While some sort of negotiated solution between the TSE and opposition parties is possible, the chances of that grow more remote as the days pass.

How much executive power?

The crux of the dispute lies in the specifics of the statute that sets out the rules for the referendum. Congress, which is dominated by opposition parties, voted to approve the measure in February as long as the constituent assembly would not have the power to dissolve the legislature. However, President Correa subsequently left intact a provision that would indeed give the constituent assembly full powers, including the authority to shut the National Assembly. It is this version that the electoral court approved.

Opposition political parties, although widely discredited among the population, are striving to retain their privileges and authority amid a power struggle with the executive branch. Yet Mr Correa, little more than two months in office but backed by strong popular support, seems to have the advantage in the conflict so far. He has put political reform at the top of his agenda, and has pursued it astutely.

However, the prospects of political instability, Ecuador’s chronic problem, are ever present and may be increasing with Mr Correa’s strategy. By encouraging his supporters to take the streets to pressure legislators and put his power on display, he is resorting to a political tool that may later escalate beyond his control.

Legislative gridlock is another growing risk, as Mr Correa’s party has no representation of its own in congress. He has called on the ousted lawmakers to be replaced with substitutes from their own parties, but thus far opposition party leaders have refused to seat replacements. The legislature, without a quorum, therefore remains suspended. To end the gridlock, the government will try to get a minimum of eight legislators replaced in the coming days. Given that this would restore a quorum (at least 51 out of 100 legislators), congress would re-open.

Mr Correa is also fuelling concerns among his opponents, the business sector and foreign investors that he is seeking to increase the power of the executive branch at the expense of other institutions, thereby undermining democracy in the country. He is being increasingly compared with Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, who similarly rewrote the constitution and has concentrated authority in his own hands.

But the new president based his electoral campaign on a promise that he would amend the constitution and reduce the power of Ecuador’s traditional political parties, which are widely accused of being corrupt and are blamed for the country’s persistent instability. The legislature was responsible for the removal of Ecuador’s last three elected presidents. No president in the past decade has completed his full term.

Forging ahead

With his enormous popularity rating of more than 70%, Mr Correa can be expected to vigorously pursue his radical reform plans. The referendum is likely to take place as planned, probably with the support of at least one opposition party, the Partido Social Patriótico (PSP, of former President Lucio Gutiérrez), the second-largest party in congress. Moreover, the public is apt to vote overwhelmingly in favour of the constituent assembly and reform of the constitution, in a clear victory for the president.

Yet Mr Correa now is likely to find it difficult to achieve consensus on the specific responsibilities of the constituent assembly and the finer details of the reforms. Moreover, even if the PSP backs the process, this support will be fragile, as its leader, Mr Gutiérrez, seeks concessions that will increase his own political influence. Absent these, he could withdraw his support.

Finally, the main features of Ecuadorean politics—social and regional tensions, weak and divided institutions, and frequent popular protest—will keep the risk of instability, and the threats to Mr Correa’s ability to govern, very high.

Ecuador ends Congress stalemate

BBC, March 20, 2007.
Ecuador's Congress has held a session after 21 substitute members were sworn in to replace 57 sacked legislators.

They were unseated for trying to block a referendum on constitutional changes that President Rafael Correa wants.

The substitutes mean Congress now has a quorum and can meet - a small victory for the president, say correspondents.

More than 1,000 police officers surrounded the Congress building in Quito to prevent the sacked legislators from trying to disrupt the session.

The BBC's South America correspondent, Daniel Schweimler, says the 21 substitute congressmen and women were smuggled into the building at dawn.

Power struggle

Some of the 57 sacked legislators had promised to force their way in to claim their seats.

They were unseated by an electoral tribunal on 7 March for trying to block a referendum on constitutional reform proposed by President Correa and now set for 15 April.

The Congress had been in recess for two weeks as a resolution was sought to the stalemate.

Mr Correa has been embroiled in a bitter conflict with the opposition Congress since he took power in January.

A government spokesman said that Mr Correa "hopes that Congress will start working in line with people's demands".

The president is a leftist who enjoys little congressional support. He has argued that Congress is corrupt and the cause of many of the country's problems.

He wants the people to have a greater say and is organising a referendum next month as the first step in setting up a series of assemblies that would by-pass the power of the Congress.

The established politicians, not surprisingly, do not want to relinquish power and are fighting back, says our correspondent.

The dispute is threatening to provoke more turmoil in a country that has had eight presidents in the past 10 years.

Congress needs to have at least 51 members present to have a quorum.

With the 21 substitutes, 55 were present at Tuesday's session.

Mr Correa came to power two months ago promising radical changes. He enjoys the support of about 70% of the people of Ecuador but most of the power and influence lies in the hands of his opponents, our correspondent says.

Ecuador lawmakers vow to reclaim seats in Congress

QUITO, March 19 (Reuters AlertNet) - Ecuador's fired opposition lawmakers on Monday vowed to break a police cordon and reclaim their parliamentary seats, keeping up the pressure on President Rafael Correa in the volatile Andean state.

Fifty-seven lawmakers have been fired for trying to block a referendum the populist president is proposing. The vote would set up a body to reduce the influence of congressmen in the judiciary and state companies.

The lawmakers refuse to accept their dismissal and last week barged through a police cordon to get into Congress. They promised to do the same on Tuesday.

"Either we all enter Congress or no one will," said Washington Vallejo, one of the 57 fired lawmakers. "We will defend Congress."

Correa, a leftist ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, since taking office in January has vowed to break the power of political elites, largely seen as corrupt, in the world's top banana exporting nation.

The fight with the lawmakers is the first major challenge for a president who has vowed to restructure the national debt and renegotiate oil deals. Congress has been instrumental in ousting three presidents in a decade.

Ecuador eyes Argentine-style debt swap-report

BUENOS AIRES, March 18 (Reuters) - Ecuador does not rule out a debt restructuring along the lines of Argentina's 2005 swap, which offered creditors about 25 cents on the dollar, Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa told leading Argentine daily Clarin in an interview published on Sunday.
Argentina restructured some $100 billion in defaulted sovereign debt in early 2005, in a swap that involved a steep haircut and extended debt maturities. About three-quarters of bondholders agreed to the terms.
"We would like to renegotiate the external debt as Argentina did, but it's quite difficult to do that now, because Argentina took advantage of its tragedy to renegotiate when bond prices had fallen," Correa was quoted as saying.
Argentina defaulted on its debt at the height of an unprecedented economic crisis in 2002, a year in which the economy shrank nearly 11 percent and the peso currency sharply depreciated.
A U.S-educated economist and friend of U.S. foe Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Correa said he preferred not to discuss his country's restructuring plan, but said he consulted with officials at Argentina's Economy Ministry on a regular basis.
Asked if he could rule out an Argentine-style debt deal, Correa responded: "No, it has not been ruled out. The debt is a heavy burden and we are going to be tough renegotiating it."
Last week, Correa told reporters he would repay foreign debt only if the country could afford it and reiterated that a default was not inconceivable. He also said the country would soon identify which debts were "illegitimate."
Ecuador's president has rattled Wall Street with promises to limit foreign debt payments. Correa made the payment on a foreign debt coupon that came due in February, but has left investors guessing over whether he will settle the next, due in May.

A World Without Foreign Military Bases

by Kintto Lucas
March 18, 2007
ZNet

Most of the 1,000 foreign military bases on the planet belong to the United States, which has 737 in different countries (excluding secret bases)

– Lina Cahuasquí, activist with Ecuador No Bases Coalition


Quito - An international network for the abolition of foreign military bases has been created at a conference attended by over 1,000 activists and experts from 30 countries, which opened in Ecuador's capital city on Monday. The No Bases Network will coordinate action strategies against the more than 1,000 military bases worldwide.

Lina Cahuasquí, an activist with the Ecuador No Bases Coalition, told IPS that the No Bases Network will be "a plural, democratic space, linked to the permanent struggles of social organisations for a military-free system that is based on respect, equity, justice and a culture of peace."

The first international conference of its kind will continue until Friday, and will analyse the impact of foreign military bases and local people's struggles against their existence.

Sessions on the first day were devoted to sharing experiences from each country. Joint strategies for action will also be planned, and on Thursday, International Women's Day, a "Women for Peace" caravan will travel from Quito to the western port of Manta, where the largest U.S. base in South America is located.

On the closing day of the conference, cultural festivals will be held in Quito and Manta, and a world solidarity campaign calling for the definitive closure of the Manta base will be launched.

Cahuasquí said that most of the 1,000 foreign military bases on the planet belong to the United States, which has 737 in different countries. Others belong to Russia, China, the United Kingdom and Italy.

"And these do not include secret military bases, like the four operated by the U.S. in Iraq," she said.

"But the United States doesn't only have bases in developing countries. It has 81 bases in Germany and 37 in Japan," she added. In Latin America and the Caribbean there are 17 U.S. military bases, located in Colombia, Peru, El Salvador, Aruba, Curaçao, Honduras, Ecuador, and Guantánamo Bay in Cuba, she noted.

Wilbert van der Zeijden, of the Transnational Institute in the Netherlands, said he wanted the meeting to foster "a broad global campaign" against foreign military presence and bases all over the world.

"If we can't shut down all the bases, we may at least be able to weaken the U.S. military network which allows them to attack when and where they wish," he said.

Corazón Fabros Valdez, from the Philippines, is on the International Organising Committee for the conference. She said she hoped that the Ecuador meeting will consolidate world support for the movement to close the Manta base, and strengthen the government's resolve to terminate the lease in December 2009, when it expires.

"We saw the importance of international solidarity for achieving success during the struggle against U.S. bases in the Philippines," she said.

"The Philippines had U.S. military bases for over 100 years, which were used against Vietnam and other nations. Some of the worst effects were violations of human rights and democracy," said Fabros Valdez.

Ecuador's new president, Rafael Correa, has already announced that he will not renew the lease of the Manta base. Spokespersons for the George W. Bush administration had intimated that the United States would like to continue using the facilities until 2012.

Manta is Ecuador's main port, located on the Pacific Ocean 260 kilometres from Quito.

Herbert Docena, a researcher with Focus on the Global South in the Philippines, also said he hoped that the conference would send a very clear message that people all over the world do not want foreign military bases.

"Besides the political declaration, we want to establish the No Bases Network all over the world and increase its dynamism, so that it embarks on medium and long term projects," Docena told IPS.

"The United States backed Ferdinando Marcos (1965-1986) with exorbitant sums of money in exchange for maintaining their bases in the Philippines. Without their support for Marcos, we would never have had such a long dictatorship," he said.

"It was only after the bases were closed in 1992 that we realised how much pollution they had caused," he said.

Another participant at the conference is U.S. pacifist Cindy Sheehan, mother of Casey Sheehan, a soldier killed in Iraq. She is here to tell her story and join the Women for Peace caravan.

Cahuasquí spoke of the U.S. base at Vieques, Puerto Rico, as an example of the negative consequences of military bases. "The area was contaminated with heavy metals, chemicals, and even nuclear waste like depleted uranium, with harmful effects on the water, human beings, and the environment in general," she said.

Many bases are touted as centres for cooperation and exchange, but are equipped with hi-tech communications gear and used for espionage, as in New Zealand.

The activists discussed the achievements of their struggle so far, including the case of Italy, where more than 100,000 people took to the streets to demonstrate that they would not accept violations of their national sovereignty.

Another example was the peaceful uprising of the Puerto Rican people to secure the closure of the Vieques base, after 60 years of U.S. military presence.

Ecuador has refused a U.S. proposal to set up another military base on the island of Baltra, in the Galápagos. Panama ousted the U.S. Navy, and Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil have in recent years ceased to participate in joint naval manoeuvres with the United States.

"We are inspired by the Ecuadorean government's position on closing down the Manta base, but we're also concerned about the pressure the United States is exerting on this country to keep the base," said Cahuasquí.

Lawmakers from Brazil, Venezuela and European countries are participating at the conference alongside activists, as is the secretary general of the World Peace Council, member of the European Parliament Tobias Pflueger, and Mexican researcher Ana Esther Ceceña.

Speakers include Kyle Kajihiro, a staunch defender of the rights of native Hawaiians, environmental justice and demilitarisation, and Andrés Thomas, a member of the U.S.-based Democracy Now.

Correa's radical plans spark battle in Ecuador

Duroyan Fertl, 16 March 2007
Green Left Weekly
The small Andean nation of Ecuador is facing a political crisis as the Congress and the courts turn on each other over new president Rafael Correa’s plans for a Constituent Assembly and a “citizens’ revolution” to build “21st century socialism” in the poverty-stricken country.
Correa, a self-described socialist and close ally of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, was elected late last year promising to redirect Ecuador’s oil wealth into social spending, increase popular democracy and limit the power of the traditional political parties. Central to this platform is convoking a popular Constituent Assembly to rewrite Ecuador’s constitution.
In February the 100-member Congress, which is controlled by parties hostile to Correa and his policies, passed a bill allowing a referendum on the assembly after the opposition Patriotic Society Party (PSP) of former president Lucio Gutierrez voted in favour. However there was an immediate dispute over the power that the assembly will have, Correa arguing for a plenary power enabling it to dismiss not only the Congress and courts, but also the president.
While the Congress disagreed, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) endorsed Correa’s statements and announced on March 1 that the referendum would be held on April 15. In response, a majority of Congress, including the PSP, voted to sack the president of the TSE. The court immediately fired back, sacking the 57 members of Congress responsible and setting up a police cordon to prevent the sacked members from entering.
The Constitutional Tribunal has refused to rule on an appeal by the fired lawmakers until Congress endorses it. Congress, however, is unable to convene, as it can’t achieve the required quorum of 51 legislators.
On March 13, 20 legislators broke through police lines and entered the Congress before being removed by riot police using tear gas. Correa blamed the ousted members of Congress for the violence, saying, “These people want to create chaos because they know they’re already out”.
The ousted legislators, made up of members of parties with close ties to Ecuador’s financial oligarchy, have threatened to set up a rival congress in Guayaquil, the country’s second major city and base of the right-wing Social Christian Party.
The Constitutional Tribunal has also warned Correa to obey its forthcoming ruling on the validity of the referendum, but Correa disputes the court’s power to rule on the matter, and has threatened to call mass protests to ensure that the assembly goes ahead.
Humberto Cholango from ECUARUNARI, one of the organisations representing Ecuador’s approximately 40% indigenous population, has also called for a massive mobilisation of all the indigenous and social movements of the country to defend the assembly.
If the referendum is successful, it will allow the election of 130 people who will have four months to rewrite the constitution. A recent poll shows that only 17% of Ecuadorians are satisfied with the Congress, which is regarded as corrupt, while over 75% support the Constituent Assembly.

Ecuador judge rejects lawmakers' request for injunction over firing

QUITO, Ecuador: An Ecuadorean judge on Friday rejected a request to block a court ruling that ousted more than half of the politically unstable nation's lawmakers last week.
Ecuador's top electoral tribunal has fired 57 of the 100 members of Congress, accusing them of interfering in a referendum to redraw the constitution. The decision came after the lawmakers ordered impeachment proceedings against tribunal members who backed the referendum.
The lawmakers asked that the court block their firing, but on Friday judge Victor Mendoza ruled that the electoral tribunal's ruling must be respected.
Mendoza made the ruling in Rocafuerte, 230 kilometers (145 miles) southwest of the capital, Quito, where protesters on Thursday attacked the ousted lawmakers seeking the injunction, throwing rocks and punching them. At least seven people were injured, police said.
Congress approved the referendum plan last month with the caveat that if approved, the special assembly called to retool the charter would not be able to close the legislature.
But the country's new leftist President Rafael Correa later overruled that stipulation, saying the assembly would have ultimate power — and setting off a constitutional crisis.
Correa, who took office Jan. 15, has advocated a new charter that limits the power of the traditional political parties, which he blames for the nation's corruption and political instability. He is the country's eighth president in a decade.

Referendum Backed By 30,000 Ecuadoreans

Quito, Mar 16 (Prensa Latina) Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa welcomed on Friday the participation of 30,000 people in the Guayaquil march to support the referendum on the Constituent Assembly, and questioned media coverage of the event.
"With their customary arrogance and disdain, elites do not want to recognize that there were 30,000 Ecuadoreans in the march of Guayaquil, southeast of the capital," Correa stressed.
At the inauguration of the Civical Square of the Ministry of Education, during which homage was paid to late minister Guadalupe Larriva, Correa said his gathering was 15 times larger than municipality mayor Jaime Nebot"s.
He questioned local media, which only covered the 2,000-strong protest led by Nebot, whom he criticized for his exclusive, discriminatory speech.
The president warned that he is "leading a government of change, a revolution of the people, and there is resistance by elites and mafias, which are losing their power and trying to thwart this process by all means."

Ecuadorians Support Referendum

Quito, Mar 16 (Prensa Latina) Massive demonstrations Friday in Ecuador confirm continuing popular support for the national consultation on April 15 and the Constituent Assembly.
Demonstrators in Quito and Guayaquil supported holding the referendum, and rejected actions by 57 former legislators to recover their seats, after the Electoral Supreme Court (TSE) dismissed them for trying to hinder the national consultation.
Students also rallied in front of Congress Thursday, with slogans against the deputies.
In Guayaquil, thousands of persons condemned the former lawmakers, and urged Congress President Jorge Cevallos to resume sessions with the substitutes and deputies of minority groups.
Amid that context, protesters prevented several of the dismissed deputies from entering a hearing analyzing an appeal to make the sanction unlawful.
Meanwhile, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa stressed the complex situation will be over when Congress restarts its sessions, and affirmed the 57 legislators should resign in a dignified manner.
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Dismissed congressmen injured by stone-throwing demonstrators in Ecuador

People's Daily Online, March 15, 2007.
Two former Ecuadorian lawmakers Thursday were injured by stones thrown by demonstrators, intensifying a battle between legislators and the nation's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).
Gloria Gallardo and Silka Sanchez are two of the 57 opposition members ousted from the 100-strong Congress by the TSE last Wednesday for blocking proposals for a referendum on President Rafael Correa's planned constitutional reforms.
Sanchez and Gallardo are members of the Renewing National Institutional Action Party (Prian), whose candidate, multi-millionaire Alvaro Noboa, lost the presidential election to Correa last year.
The demonstrators also smashed the windows of their cars and damaged equipment belonging to a local television crew before police dispersed them with tear gas.
Ecuador's two main cities, Quito, the capital, and Guayaquil, the largest city, have witnessed marches supporting Correa's Constituent Assembly, a proposed body sought by the president to rewrite the nation's constitution.
Elsewhere Thursday, Federico Perez, a dismissed congressman from the Prian party, formally resigned from his post in the government, saying that he is unsatisfied with both the opposition and government, and would never return to politics.
The TSE is also meeting over possible punishment for a judge in the coastal province of Manabi, who supported a motion granting a reprieve to the sacked deputies.
On Wednesday, Correa announced he would study the possibility of calling an extraordinary session to swear in substitutes for the 57 sacked deputies, without whom the Congress does not have the quorum to make decisions.
Jaime Velasco, president of Ecuadorian Supreme Court, called for negotiations to solve the crisis.

Ecuadorean government denies rumors of banking crisis

March 15, 2007, IHT
QUITO, Ecuador: The economy minister dismissed rumors that the country is descending into a banking crisis, telling Ecuadoreans on Thursday that their deposits are safe and the country's financial institutions are solvent.
Economy Minister Ricardo Patino's comments on Channel 8 television came after opposition lawmakers warned earlier this week that the new leftist government of President Rafael Correa could order banks to close.
"The government is going to look after your deposits," Patino said. "There is no need to worry. The economy is doing well."
Ecuadorean banking superintendent Alfredo Vergara told Channel 8: "We have three times the liquidity needed."
On Wednesday, Correa accused the opposition lawmakers — who were fired last week by an electoral court for allegedly interfering in a national referendum on whether to rewrite the constitution — of trying to "destabilize a government that is seeking the common good."
In March 1999, then-President Jamil Mahuad ordered banks to freeze half of deposits in a bid to avoid closing banks entirely amid a crippling economic crisis. The following January, in what many considered a last-ditch effort to rescue the economy from hyperinflation, Mahuad phased out the nation's sucre currency and adopted the U.S. dollar as the legal tender.

OPEC president: Ecuador welcome back

VIENNA, March 15 (UPI) -- OPEC's president said at a Vienna news conference Ecuador can re-establish its membership at any time, saying Quito suspended but didn't sever ties in 1992.
Mohamed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Ecuador is welcome back "at any time," the global energy information firm Platts reports.
Hamli is also the energy minister of the United Arab Emirates.
According to a Nov. 27, 1992, OPEC release: "The conference regretfully accepted the wish of Ecuador to suspend its full membership in the organization. However, recognizing the current economic constraints facing that country, the conference hopes that Ecuador will be able to overcome these difficulties and rejoin the organization in the not too distant future."
Rafael Correa, Ecuador's president, said Wednesday he wants to join OPEC again but didn't set a timeline.
Current members of the oil cartel include Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
Hamli, responding to rumors Sudan would join, said "There is no official communication (from Sudan) about joining OPEC."

Ecuadorean Opposition Plans Parallel Congress After Shooting

By Alex Kennedy and Bill Faries

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's suspended lawmakers, in a challenge to President Rafael Correa, plan to hold a parallel session outside Quito after police blocked their entry to the capitol and two supporters were wounded in a drive-by shooting.

Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo said opposition leaders now have backing from more than two-thirds of the 100-member congress to meet as an alternative assembly next week. Riot police used tear gas yesterday to stop the lawmakers from reaching their offices after the electoral court suspended the ``political rights'' of 57 opposition members last week.

``We're seeing a regime that's an authentic dictatorship,'' former President Lucio Gutierrez, a leader of the opposition Patriotic Society party, said in a telephone interview from Quito. ``Violence has been rising in a dangerous way, and it could at some point turn into a civil war in Ecuador.''

The shooting, which occurred outside the Marriott Hotel, where the lawmakers retreated, deepens a clash over Correa's plans to remake the country along what he calls socialist economic and political lines. Correa's proposal for a new constitution -- the trigger for the current showdown -- echoes steps taken by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales to consolidate their control over the congress, courts and election authorities.

``They abused their power, they thought they were immune,'' Correa said in comments broadcast on the Cablenoticias television station after the legislators were shut out of their offices. ``Now they're getting a taste of their own medicine,'' he said.

`Quiet For Now'

Ecuador's congress voted March 6 to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan for a national referendum on re-writing the constitution. The next day, the court suspended the lawmakers who sought to remove the judge, ruling their votes violated the constitution. Correa supported the court's decision and said the lawmakers would be replaced.

The top constitutional court yesterday rejected a request by the president of congress to rule on the legality of the suspension.

``With this situation, Correa's ability to govern will be reduced,'' said Claudio Loser, former director of Western Hemisphere affairs at the International Monetary Fund and a political analyst at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

The U.S. Ambassador in Ecuador, Linda Jewell, said on Cablenoticias that the conflict among Correa, the congress and the courts is a domestic situation.

``We're going to be quiet for now,'' she said.

Correa, 43, a U.S.-trained economist who served a five- month stint as finance minister in 2005, won 57 percent of votes in a Nov. 26 run-off election in which he ran without the formal backing of any political party.

`Government Crisis'

During and after the campaign, Correa aligned himself with Chavez's socialist vision, vowing to boost spending on the poor, renegotiate foreign oil contracts and review Ecuador's approximately $10 billion in foreign debt obligations. Venezuela on Feb. 22 offered Ecuador as much as $500 million of ``financial cooperation.''

Correa took office in January as Ecuador's eighth president in about a decade. On Jan. 30, about 5,000 of his supporters tried to storm congress to demand lawmakers approve plans for a referendum on the constitution.

``Correa is forcing a government crisis,'' Loser said. ``This is going to get investors even more nervous.''

Ecuador has twice backed away from threats to default on debt payments since Correa took power. Finance Minister Ricardo Patino said March 8 that the country wouldn't ignore foreign debt obligations.

``Our creditors should know that we're very responsible,'' Patino said.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez said in an interview that the shots were fired from a passing motorcycle carrying two people. One of the opposition lawmakers' supporters outside the hotel was hit in the back, the other in the leg.

20 Fired Ecuadorean Lawmakers Take Seats

Wednesday March 14, 2007

By GONZALO SOLANO

QUITO, Ecuador (AP via The Guardian) - Some 20 lawmakers fired last week by Ecuador's top electoral court for allegedly interfering with plans for a constitutional referendum forced their way past dozens of police guarding Congress and took up their seats on Tuesday.

``We are in a dictatorship!'' shouted one of the dismissed legislators, opposition Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo, who made her way into the chamber through riot police and tear gas.

At least two members of Congress and three other people were injured in the incident, which also prompted rival executive and legislative police forces to scuffle with each other.

The new leftist president, Rafael Correa, blamed the violence on the ousted lawmakers.

``We are peaceful people. We will keep public order,'' he told Radio Vision. ``These people want to create chaos because they know they're already out.''

The executive, legislative and judicial branches of government are all grappling for power in this politically unstable Andean nation, accusing each other of violating the constitution and trying to assert their supremacy.

Correa, an admirer of Venezuela's firebrand leader Hugo Chavez, has vowed to revamp the country's political system since taking office in January. He is determined to hold an April 15 referendum on whether Ecuador should throw out its constitution and write a new charter limiting the power of the traditional political parties he blames for corruption and political instability.

Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years, Correa says he won't respect any decision by Congress or the courts to block the referendum. If approved, Ecuador would have five months to elect 130 members of a special assembly that would begin rewriting the constitution next fall.

Congress approved the referendum plan with the caveat that the assembly would not be able to close the legislature. Correa later overruled that stipulation, saying the assembly would have ultimate power and setting off the constitutional crisis.

The country's top electoral court, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, which approved Correa's plan, fired 57 congressmen from the 100-seat unicameral legislature last week after they ordered impeachment proceedings against the court's majority.

The fired president of Congress, Jorge Cevallos, then turned to Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal, which refused Tuesday to review his complaints until a majority of Congress members sign the appeal. Since the electoral court fired the lawmakers, Congress has lacked a quorum of members to convene a formal session.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez, one of the fired legislators who pushed past police Tuesday, said they had acted ``to prevent a dictatorship. We don't want dictatorship. We want democracy.''

Constitutional experts have said both the lawmakers and the court were violating the country's charter - not an uncommon occurrence in Ecuador, where Congress has illegally dismissed three elected presidents in the last decade after they lost popularity.

Lawmakers, police clash at Ecuador’s Congress

The Peninsular, March 14, 2007

QUITO • Fired lawmakers scuffled with police and some forced their way into Ecuador’s Congress yesterday, intensifying a feud with President Rafael Correa in the politically unstable Andean country.

One legislator suffered a back injury when he was knocked to the ground. He was carried away on a stretcher and put in an ambulance, according to a health official.

“We are in a state of emergency and we are being hunted,” fired lawmaker Gloria Gallardo told a television station from inside Congress. “Police are willing to kill lawmakers.” Police wearing gas masks thrust riot shields at legislators as tear gas clouded the air around the building.

“They hit us,” said opposition lawmaker Sylka Sanchez, who also yelled at police, “You traitors!” Dozens of Correa supporters clashed with protesters backing opposition lawmakers, kicking and punching each other.

Fifty-seven legislators have refused to accept an electoral court decision to fire them last week for seeking to reverse an earlier ruling that would allow the highly popular Correa to hold a referendum to weaken Congress’ powers.

The ousted congressmen lost another legal battle on Tuesday, when the constitutional court rejected their appeal to overturn the earlier ruling. But they were expected to continue resisting their dismissals through legal channels.

Yesterday’s violence forced Congress to suspend its sessions for a week. “The country lives a moment of political crisis and my obligation is to protect lawmakers. Congress will not hold a session,” Congress president Jorge Cevallos said.

The dispute has become the biggest challenge to the leftist’s presidency since he took office in January in a country where Congress played a pivotal role in ousting three presidents in the last decade.

MPs clash with police in Ecuador

BBC, March 14, 2007
Sacked opposition lawmakers in Ecuador have clashed with riot police while trying to regain their seats.

Tear gas was fired at a group of 20 former MPs as they forced their way into Congress. Two of their supporters were later shot and wounded.

The demonstrators were part of a group of 57 legislators dismissed for trying to block a referendum proposed by left-wing President Rafael Correa.

He has vowed to curb the powers of what he calls a "corrupt" Congress.

The congressmen and women fought their way through police cordons into the congress building in the capital, Quito, to take up their seats.

After failing to gather a quorum, they left the building and faced an angry pro-government crowd outside.

Later unidentified gunmen fired shots at anti-government protesters, wounding two.

Power struggle

President Correa blamed the sacked MPs for the violence. "We are peaceful people," he said. He added that a referendum, aimed at re-writing the constitution and limiting the power of Congress, will go ahead as scheduled next month.

BBC Latin America correspondent Daniel Schweimler says the conflict is going to get worse, with demonstrations in favour of the referendum expected before the 15 April vote.

Tuesday's clashes are the latest round of a power struggle between Ecuador's president, lawmakers and the judiciary.

Mr Correa is Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years.

He came to power two months ago promising radical changes to limit the power of the traditional political parties, which he blames for corruption and poverty.

Violence in Ecuador heats up Congress-Correa feud

By Alonso Soto, March 14, 2007.

QUITO (Reuters) - Ousted Ecuadorean lawmakers scuffled with police and a shooting wounded two of their supporters on Tuesday, worsening discord between Congress and President Rafael Correa in the volatile Andean nation.

About 20 lawmakers barged through a cordon of police, who used riot shields to try to stop them from entering Congress, as tear gas billowed in the air. One legislator was carried away on a stretcher after he was knocked to the ground and injured.

Two congressional aides were lightly wounded by gunshots. Lawmakers said their supporters were targeted by unknown gunmen on motorcycles, but police said the two men had been hit by stray bullets from an unrelated robbery.

Dozens of Correa supporters had earlier traded kicks and punches with protesters backing the dismissed lawmakers.

"We are in a state of emergency and we are being hunted," fired legislator Gloria Gallardo told a television station from inside Congress. "Police are willing to kill lawmakers."

In a radio interview before the shooting, Correa urged his supporters to avoid violence. "Do not let yourselves be provoked by these people who are trying to cause chaos," he said.

The leftist economist, an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, has demanded that the fired lawmakers be replaced by substitutes from the same parties, in a move that could boost his clout over an unruly and widely unpopular Congress.

Fifty-seven legislators have refused to accept an electoral court decision that fired them last week. They had sought to reverse an earlier ruling that would allow the highly popular Correa to hold a referendum to weaken Congress' powers.

Changes proposed by the referendum are meant to lessen political influence in the judiciary and force lawmakers to live in the small constituencies they represent.

Tuesday's violence forced Congress to suspend sessions for a week.

The dispute has become the biggest challenge to the leftist's presidency since he took office in January in a country where Congress played a pivotal role in ousting three presidents in the last decade.

Investors, already spooked because Correa has threatened to skip some foreign debt payments, worry that the president will struggle to govern despite his high popularity.

"The escalating political confrontation carries the risk of further erosion of the institutional backbone of the country, which could exacerbate perennial weak governability conditions," senior Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a research note.

Ecuador is the world's top banana exporter and South America's No. 5 oil producer.

(Additional reporting by Alexandra Valencia and Guillermo Granja)

Ecuador: Will the Civil Crisis Remain Civil?

Stratfor, March 13, 2007

Summary

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide whether to reinstate 57 legislators dismissed March 7 by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This leaves the country with an unresolved crisis regarding legitimate authority -- a situation in which the military could intervene.

Analysis

Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 declined to decide on the reinstatement of 57 legislators dismissed six days earlier by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. The constitutional court realized that without President Rafael Correa's support, its decision would not matter except as a possible trigger for massive protests. The court announced that the motion filed lacked the required signatures from a congressional majority, but that it could be considered if it is refiled with the signatures.

If the Constitutional Tribunal had ruled on reinstating the 57 legislators, the result could have been chaos on the streets. There would be large demonstrations, led in part by the indigenous groups of the highlands, echoing Correa's demand that the ruling be ignored. Traditionally, at such inflection points in Ecuadorian politics, the military steps in. Since those demonstrations did not materialize, however, the military is waiting to see whether the ongoing crisis reaches a boiling point.

The situation began March 7, when Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal fired 57 of the 100 members of the country's unicameral Congress, based on allegations of interfering with a constitutional referendum after those 57 attempted to dismiss a majority of the tribunal's members. Correa announced March 8 that if the constitutional court were to reinstate the legislators, he would consider the ruling invalid and call for a popular uprising against the decision. In other words, Correa is de facto dismissing the judicial and legislative branches of Ecuador's government and making himself the sole authority. Strengthened by widespread public support (though it dropped from the 70 percent range in January to around 65 percent in early March, according to polling firm Cedatos/Gallup), Correa has decided to descend the slippery slope from populist to authoritarian.

Ecuador has seen its share of coups, with the military sometimes supporting the sitting president and sometimes overthrowing him, but usually acting decisively either way "for the good of the country." This case is a tricky one for the military, however. Correa is clearly dismantling the government's checks and balances and alienating the country's commercial class. On the other hand, he is very popular. It is not clear whether the military could control the public backlash that would occur if it tried to overthrow Correa, and it probably does not have the stomach to try at this point.

The military appears to have a cordial relationship with Correa thus far -- Correa has even approved military pay raises -- and is not likely to rock the boat. However, if the opposition is able to gather strength, the military will have to make tough decisions.

Many of the deposed congressmen gathered March 13 at a Marriott hotel in Ecuador. Several supported an announcement by Gloria Gallardo, a dismissed legislator from the opposition Institutional Renewal Party of National Action, who said that democracy in Ecuador is dead and Correa has become a dictator. Furthermore, Pedro Almeida of the Patriotic Society Party called for an extraordinary Congress to meet in Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil, located in the west coast lowlands where the opposition movement is based. If opposition political parties and businessmen can create a well-organized grassroots movement to support the deposed legislators' reinstatement, popular unrest could become significant.

Any such organized opposition would shrink Correa's window of opportunity for attempting to restore a semblance of legitimacy to his decisions by getting Congress to function again. Correa would do this by replacing some of the dismissed congressmen with preselected alternates loyal to him. Even if Correa's popularity holds above the 60 percent mark -- which is likely -- the country is now dangerously divided by competing claims to legitimate authority. Leading up to Ecuador's April 15 referendum on the formation of a constitutional assembly, the military could face increasing pressure to intervene before, after, or during the outbreak of violent demonstrations regarding the dismissed legislators.

The least stable -- and almost certainly bloody -- outcome would be an attempt to oust Correa. The most stable outcome, and still the most likely, is that Correa will keep the military's support, suppress the opposition, continue his constitutional reform, and eventually restore a veneer of respectability to the other branches of government by repopulating Congress with his supporters and committing to honor all court decisions under the new constitution. Such a turn of events might help preserve domestic tranquility, but it would also push Correa further toward becoming an imitation of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Ecuador Rightwing Deputies Sow Chaos

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador s President Rafael Correa publicly accused 57 deputies, dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) of sowing chaos in the country in an attempt to recover their congressional seats on Tuesday.

They will be held responsible for any violent act or incident during today s demonstrations in support of a referendum calling for a Constituent Assembly, Correa told press.

He warned that the legislators, taking advantage of the poverty of the people, have hired people in several provinces to sow violence in Quito.

"Those who support the Constituent Assembly are peaceful people, and we will take care of public order. However, these people [the dismissed deputies] want to generate chaos because they know they are already out," Correa said.

The Ecuadorean president called on "the proud, sovereign, honorable youth not to succumb to these provocations. Let us march, demonstrate absolutely peacefully, saying NO to violence," he added..

Gunmen shoot at Ecuador opposition crowd, witnesses

QUITO (Reuters) Mar 13, 2007 - Unidentified gunmen on motorcycles shot at a crowd of supporters of fired Ecuadorean lawmakers, injuring two people on Tuesday and escalating violence in a feud between Congress and the president, witnesses said on Tuesday.

It was not immediately clear how seriously the two had been hurt in the politically unstable Andean nation. The shots were fired outside a hotel only hours after fired lawmakers scuffled with police and forced their way into Congress.

"A group of unknown assailants on motorcycles shot at our supporters outside. There are two people hurt," said opposition lawmaker Clemente Vasquez who was inside the hotel. Witnesses and legislators said no lawmaker had been hurt.

Fifty-seven lawmakers have refused to accept an electoral court decision to fire them last week. They had tried to reverse a ruling that would allow the popular President Rafael Correa to hold a referendum that would weaken Congressional powers.

Ecuador Court Rules Deputies Stay Out

Quito, Mar 13 (Prensa Latina) In a surprise decision Tuesday, Ecuador s Constitutional Court refused to hear the petition for reinstatement by 57 deputies dismissed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE).

The request, presented by Congress leader Jorge Cevallos, enraged the right-wing legislators who had been dismissed by the TSE for attempting to obstruct the referendum on the Constituent Assembly.

According to judicial sources, the Assessment and Receipt Committee determined that, under the Constitution, Cevallos claim failed to fulfil the requisite of support by the majority in Congress.

Just before the decision, a group of dismissed legislators from PRIAN (Institutional Renovator) and Patriotic Society confronted the police and violently entered the congressional building, but Cevallos determined there was not a quorum and suspended today s session.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people have gathered outside the Legislature to guard it and demand expulsion of the dismissed legislators.

President of La Sierra Indigenous Nationalities Confederation, Humberto Cholango, warned that "if the dismissed deputies attempt to return to their seats, this movement and all the people will rise up," because the people are determined to have a Constituent Assembly, he concluded.

Sacked Legislators Get Past Police Cordon To Ecuador Congress

Playfuls, March 13, 2007.
Seventeen sacked legislators on Tuesday managed to get past the police cordon around the Ecuadorian Congress in Quito and enter the plenary hall.

According to media reports, the entry of former legislators was preceded by tough verbal exchanges and also some wrangling with police officers. One legislator fell and had to be treated in the hospital for a back problem, while another's eyes were affected by tear gas, reports said.

Scores of protestors gathered before Congress after the incident.

The police have been guarding the building since the country's highest electoral tribunal revoked the mandates of 57 of Ecuador's 100 legislators last week for standing in the way of a referendum on rewriting the country's constitution.

The dispute surrounds a central campaign pledge of President Rafael Correa - inaugurated in January - to drastically change the country's institutional make-up.

Correa fielded no legislative candidates in the November elections in the hope of making a clean sweep away from the highly unpopular Congress, which many regard as ineffective. But in so doing, he left opposition parties in the majority in the legislature.

Ecuador's opposition refused to back Correa's call for a special assembly to rewrite the constitution, prompting Correa to request a referendum, which was granted by the country's electoral authority without seeking the parliament's approval.

The country's opposition-controlled Congress sought to fire the electoral tribunal's president for announcing the referendum would be held on April 15. Congress insisted it had to first approve the referendum.

A recent opinion poll pointed out that only 17 per cent of Ecuadorians are satisfied with their Congress.

Ecuador: Court Declines Expulsion Ruling

Stratfor, March 13, 2007
Ecuador's Constitutional Tribunal on March 13 rejected a request to rule on the constitutionality of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal's decision to expel 57 legislators from the National Congress. The Constitutional Tribunal said the expelled members' request for a ruling lacked the support of a majority of the National Congress. Tribunal President Santiago Velazquez ruled that the expelled members can appeal the ruling or file a new complaint with the Constitutional Tribunal once they have the necessary support from congress.

Ecuador Congress Ends Session After Lawmakers Banned

By Alex Kennedy

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Ecuador's congress canceled its session today after riot police used tear gas to keep suspended lawmakers from entering the capitol building.

Jorge Cevallos, the legislature's president, said he canceled the meeting because too few congressmen attended. The country's top constitutional court today rejected a request by Cavellos to rule on the legality of the suspension last week of 57 opposition lawmakers by the electoral court.

``This escalating political confrontation carries the risk of further erosion to the institutional backbone of the country,'' Alberto Ramos, a senior economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said in a note to clients.

The court's decision will probably lead to the appointment of the suspended congressmen's lesser-known substitutes, a move that should strengthen President Rafael Correa, Ramos said.

Police used shields and tear gas to keep a group of suspended congressmen out of congress. Officers allowed about eight of the deputies into the building to protect them from Correa supporters, Luis Cueva, head of the congressional police force, said on Ecuavisa.

Ecuador's 100-member congress on March 6 voted to replace Supreme Electoral Tribunal President Jorge Acosta after the court backed Correa's plan to hold a referendum on whether to rewrite the constitution. The court on March 7 ruled the vote unconstitutional and ordered the suspension of lawmakers who voted for it.

``If not toned down soon, the heated political rhetoric and confrontation could start to erode the fundamentals of the country,'' Ramos said. ``At that stage, what has been so far disconcerting rhetoric and questionable willingness to stay current on external debt obligations could easily mutate into genuine capacity to pay issues.''

Correa said yesterday his government won't pay $40 million in interest it owes the central bank, in a bid to free up more funds for health programs. The government, which owes the central bank $1.2 billion, last week backed off threats to default on $10 billion of foreign debt when Finance Minister Ricardo Patino said the government will probably make an interest payment in May.

20 fired Ecuador congressmen force their way into parliament

IHT, March 13, 2007

QUITO, Ecuador: Some 20 congressmen fired last week by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal for allegedly interfering with plans for a national referendum forced their way past dozens of police guarding Congress and took up their seats on Tuesday.

Opposition Congresswoman Gloria Gallardo, one of the dismissed legislators, shouted, "We are in a dictatorship!" and accused new leftist President Rafael Correa of ordering police to keep the fired congressmen from entering.

The tribunal dismissed 57 congressmen it accused of interfering with a national referendum, scheduled for April 15 and supported by Correa, on the need for a special assembly to rewrite the constitution.

The dispute has plunged this unstable small Andean into a political crisis, with the tribunal, Congress and the president accusing one another of violating the constitution.

Correa says the new charter is needed to limit the power of traditional political parties that he blames for corruption and political instability. Correa is Ecuador's eighth president in 10 years.

The tribunal acted last week after 57 congressmen in the 100-seat unicameral legislature fired the tribunal's president for approving the referendum and then began impeachment proceedings against him and three other judges who formed the majority in the seven-member court.

Constitutional experts questioned both the congressmen's actions and the response of the tribunal.

Congresswoman Sylka Sanchez, one of the fired legislators who pushed past police guards, said they had acted "to prevent a dictatorship. We don't want dictatorship. We want democracy."

Television images showed one congressman lying on the floor of Congress apparently unconscious from a fall. Red Cross workers were helping him. Another congressman received treatment for his eyes, which were irritated by tear gas fired by police trying to keep the fired legislators from entering.

The Constitutional Tribunal convened Tuesday to study a complaint from Jorge Cevallos, the fired president of Congress, that the electoral tribunal's actions violated the constitution.

Correa has already said he would not respect any decision by the Constitutional Tribunal aimed at blocking the referendum. He argues the election tribunal has final say on electoral matters, not the Constitutional Tribunal.

Since the firing of the 57 legislators, Congress has not had a quorum of 51 members to convene a session.

The legislature was again unable to achieve a quorum on Tuesday, and Cevallos rescheduled the next session for the coming Tuesday.

Ecuador Assembly, Tooth and Nail

Quito, Mar 12 (Prensa Latina) Ecuador will host this week national protests in defense of the Constituency Assembly and to stop conservative tactics to reinstate 57 legislators removed from office for obstructing a referendum to give that assemblage full power.

The protests will be held at several cities after President Rafael Correa called on the weekend to start a "peaceful resistance" to contend those opposing the Constituency Assembly.

The conservative parties in Congress are Renovador Institucional, Social Cristiano and Christian Democrat.

Movimiento Popular Democratico (MPD), along workers, students, Indigenous people and members of the government Alianza PAIS, announced protests in Guayaquil, south east the capital.

Cesar Rodriguez, regional coordinator for Alianza PAIS, said the protests start the campaign in favor of the referendum slated for April 15 in demand of an Assembly with full power.

Like Rodriguez, Humberto Cholango, leader of the Confederacion de Nacionalidades Indigenas de la Sierra (Ecuarunari), stressed the need to defend the Assembly to change the future of Ecuador.